This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
The Pelicans and Hawks rest atop the league as the best defenses over the last 10 games, which, under normal circumstances, would be cause to avoid the Magic and the Pistons, respectively. However, with Anthony Davis doubtful for Wednesday, the Magic may actually be a team to target – that's how important Davis is to Pelicans. As for the Hawks, in their three games since trading away Kyle Korver, their defense is league-average, so it's not clear that the Pistons need be avoided, either. If any team is to be avoided it is the Raptors, who face a hot 76ers team whose defense has moved into the top four over the past 10 days.
Three of the worst defenses are in action, the Bucks, Pistons and Kings. Therefore target the Rockets, Hawks and Pacers.
GUARDS
James Harden, HOU vs. MIL ($62): I hate paying top dollar, as Harden eats up a giant 31 percent of the budget. But if you're ever going to use the MVP candidate, few matchups are better than a home game verse the Bucks. Over the last 10 games, the Bucks defense allowed the second-most points per possession in the league. They are well below average in rebounding percentage, which is a huge benefit to Harden, who is third in league in rebounds among guards. And, since I frequently point out how rarely the most expensive players profit, it is only fair that I point out that Harden has recently been an exception to this trend, profiting in three of the last six, and that does not include 59.2 fantasy points in Minnesota on the second night of a back-to-back.
Tim Hardaway Jr., ATL at DET ($13): This is a pretty textbook case of a salary not rising quickly enough to reflect a player's increased role and production. Hardaway has at least 23 fantasy points in five of his last six, and he has played at least 21 minutes in every game this month. He went on a similar run at the beginning of December, but then missed several games with a groin injury. He's back to full health now, locked into a big role in the rotation and facing a favorable opponent. Add in the absurdly low salary, and this is one of the best bargains of the night.
Other suggestions: Glenn Robinson III, IND at SAC ($10); Malcolm Brogdon, MIL at HOU ($18)
Guard to Avoid
DeMar DeRozan, TOR at PHI ($42): The last time the Raptors faced the 76ers was early December, when the 76ers were 6-18 and their defense ranked in the bottom half of the league. Since that game, the 76ers have gone 7-7, and their defense allows the fifth-fewest points per possession. That defensive improvement is anchored by Joel Embiid locking down the paint. In that time, 76ers opponents are averaging the fourth-worst field goal percentage inside five feet, and the second-worst between five and nine feet. DeRozan's game is built on his work in and around the paint, as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Lebron James are the only non-PF/Cs who score more points in the paint than DeRozan. He is second in the league in points off drives, and fourth in the league in points as the pick-and-roll ball handler. The vast majority of DeRozan's fantasy value comes from his scoring, and the 76ers are one of the best suited teams to stop exactly the kind of scoring that DeRozan specializes in.
FORWARDS
Thaddeus Young, IND at SAC ($21): Quiet, dependable, forgettable Thad. Young is one of the most under-the-radar players in the league – and playing in Indiana certainly doesn't enhance one's notoriety – but he's having a productive season, averaging 31.4 minutes per game, and it's been more than a month since he played fewer than 28. Two of his last three outings resulted in more than 35 fantasy points, and those were against much tougher opponents than the Kings. He struggled in London against the Nuggets, but sometimes weird things happen when teams travel across an ocean to play a game, and he returned to form Monday against the Pelicans.
Dario Saric, PHI vs. TOR ($11): Saric has taken on a bigger and more reliable role since just before Christmas. In that time, he is averaging 25.1 minutes, playing at least 21 in every game. He's averaging 11.4 points and 6.2 rebounds per game, and he has totaled at least 15 fantasy points in all but one appearance. His price has finally risen above the minimum, and it will probably rise further over the next week or two.
Other suggestions: Zach Randolph, MEM at WAS ($20); Anthony Tolliver, SAC vs. IND ($11)
Forward to Avoid
Otto Porter, WAS vs. MEM ($25): There really aren't bad forward options, so I'm mentioning Porter out of respect for the Grizzlies. Their recent defense hasn't been as stout as it was earlier in the season, but a lineup featuring Mike Conley, Tony Allen and Marc Gasol can still cause trouble for anyone. Porter will probably see more of James Ennis than Allen, though, which is good for Porter, who has scored 13 or fewer in four of his last five, and totaled fewer than 23 fantasy points in three of four. He's not a very poor option, but there are plenty better to choose from.
CENTERS
Nikola Vucevic, ORL at NO ($28): This recommendation is made on the assumption that Anthony Davis (back) does not play. Assuming that to be true, the Pelicans' bigs are not up to the challenge of defending a talented scorer like Vucevic, who has scored at least 15 points in each of the past five games, including two double-doubles, plus an average of 2.6 steals-plus-blocks per game. He's profited in all five games, including three with more than 38 fantasy points.
Kelly Olynyk, BOS vs. NY ($11): Over his last five games, Olynyk is averaging 14.4 points, and 6.2 rebounds in 25.6 minutes per game. He's also making 2.2 threes per night, on the back of an absurdly efficient 73.3 percent from behind the arc. The increase in minutes is the most important piece, since Olynyk has always had the ability to produce, but he had been limited by his playing time. With Kristaps Porzingas (Achilles) out, the Knicks don't have a center who can hang with Olynyk on the perimeter.
Other suggestions: Cody Zeller, CHA vs. POR ($16)
Center to Avoid
Enes Kanter, OKC at GS ($19): This pick could look very bad, since Steven Adams (concussion) is out Wednesday, theoretically leaving Kanter as the primary center for the Thunder. But, despite Adams' absence Monday, Kanter only played 23 minutes. Then let's recall Kanter's last game against the Warriors, when he played only three minutes and mocked Kevin Durant, despite the fact the Thunder were losing and that Durant was actually playing in the game. The Warriors are also a tough matchup for any position, and the Thunder may not want to rely on a below-average defender against one of the best offenses in the league.
