Category Strategy: Unusual Schedule Demands Attention

This is a very strange week for the NBA schedule, and savvy fantasy gamers will prepare and adjust accordingly. The Nuggets play the Pacers in London on Thursday (at 3 pm EST, so set those lineups early!), and that is both teams' only game this week. Five more teams play only two games: the Clippers, Heat Hornets, Suns, and Warriors. Players on all seven of those teams see a big drop in value this week. Teams counting on strong blocks from Myles Turner, or Nikola Jokic's assists will be disappointed.

On the flip side, the Bulls play five games in a week for the first and only time this season. The extra games, especially in the context of the light week, adds significant value to their several fringe waiver options. Shallow leagues should consider Taj Gibson and Robin Lopez, while deeper formats should look at Nikola Mirotic, Michael Carter-Williams, Doug McDermott, and even Jerian Grant and Cristiano Felicio.

Seven teams play four games: the Knicks, Lakers, Nets, Pistons, Rockets, Thunder, and Timberwolves. With so few games this week, players on all of those teams also get a noticeable boost in value. The remaining 15 teams play three games each.

Lastly, George Hill is now back and should be owned in all leagues. Take a look to see if he's available in yours.

Points

Doug McDermott, Bulls
(Ownership: ESPN – 10%; Yahoo – 28%; CBS – 35%)

McDermott's seeing increased minutes lately, and he's been making good use of them. Combined with his five-game week – and during one of the slowest weeks of the season – he borders on must-add in some settings. He's averaging 31.3 minutes, 12.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 1.7 threes since returning from a shin injury. If he keeps that up over the next five games, that is 62 points, 21 rebounds, and eight threes – much more than, for example, Devin Booker or Klay Thompson project to produce during either of their two games.

Other suggestions: Nikola Mirotic, Bulls; Allen Crabbe, Trail Blazers

Three-Pointers

Nikola Mirotic, Bulls
(Ownership: ESPN – 28%; Yahoo – 75%; CBS – 66%)

The significance of a perfectly timed five-game week just can't be overstated. Mirotic scores a few more threes than McDermott, so he's the choice for managers who need help from long range. He's averaging 2.7 per game in 29.0 minutes since the calendar turned to 2017. If McDermott is not available, Mirotic is my top pick for points this week, too.

If your league settings are less impacted by the schedule, there are a trio of big men who warrant some attention. Channing Frye has been knocking down threes all season, whereas Spencer Hawes is only now finally cracking the Hornets' rotation. Finally, Justin Hamilton has been making threes all season, but only recently is he rebounding and scoring enough to be worth adding. All three provide threes from atypical positions.

Other suggestions: Doug McDermott, Bulls; Channing Frye, Cavaliers; Spencer Hawes, Hornets; Troy Daniels, Grizzlies
Deep leagues only: Justin Hamilton, Nets

Rebounds

Al-Farouq Aminu
(Ownership: ESPN – 20%; Yahoo – 42%; CBS – 42%)

Aminu hurt his back in mid-December and missed four games. Since returning, despite repeatedly being listed on the injury report, his play has improved significantly. In nine games, he is averaging 32.4 minutes and 6.8 rebounds, and that improves to 35.0 minutes and 8.7 rebounds over his past three. He is only 25 years old, and his early season underperformance was an unexpected disappointment. He's finally returning to what he did all last season, and he should have room to continue improve. He also chips in a few threes, assists, and steals.

Other suggestions: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Hornets; Luol Deng, Lakers; Cody Zeller, Hornets; Patrick Patterson, Raptors

Assists

T.J. McConnell, 76ers
(Ownership: ESPN – 10%; Yahoo – 24%; CBS – 48%)

McConnell started while Sergio Roriguez dealt with an ankle injury, and he made the most of the opportunity. In four games, he averaged 36.0 minutes and 9.8 assists. Rodriguez returned in the fourth of those games, though he only played 12 minutes. Rodriguez's return and improving health hurts McConnell's value, but it doesn't sap it entirely. Even before Rodriguez went out, McConnell was seeing a larger role in the rotation and the improved numbers to go with it. In the previous seven games with both players in the lineup, McConnell averaged 22.4 minutes and 5.6 assists, which is huge for a mid-season waiver add. He needs more than 25 minutes to be much more than a passing specialist, but this is the section on assists, so, that's kind of the point.

Other suggestions: J.J. Barea, Mavericks; Marcus Smart, Celtics

Steals

Marcus Smart, Celtics
(Ownership: ESPN – 24%; Yahoo – 64%; CBS – 75%)

I've mostly avoided Smart in this column, due largely to fears of inconsistent play. When it comes to steals, however, he's been pretty reliable. He has at least one steal in 27 of 34 games, and is averaging 1.3 per game on the year. Those numbers look even better over the last month, when he has a steal in 13 out of 14, and his average is up to 1.5 per game. He is seeing more usage as a facilitator during the Celtics' current hot streak, and the increased assists bolsters his overall value.

Other suggestions: Nerlens Noel, 76ers; Tony Allen, Grizzlies; Jerian Grant, Bulls

Blocks

James Johnson, Heat
(Ownership: ESPN – 37%; Yahoo – 53%; CBS – 72%)

This is more of a long-term add, since his two games this week are less than ideal for a lot of managers. Justise Winslow (shoulder) is now out for the season. That's a crushing loss for the Heat, and it has major impact on fantasy. It permanently opens up a lot of rotation time, and Johnson should be one of the primary beneficiaries. He is able to play and guard multiple positions, including some stints at center. He is a multi-categorical weapon and is probably worth adding for all managers. He's especially valuable as a shot-blocker from a non-PF/C slot, averaging 1.0 per game on 24.9 minutes – and that minutes load may rise over the coming weeks.

Amir Johnson will have entered many managers' radars with eight blocks in three games, but it's a rouse. Johnson is only averaging 0.6 blocks per game on the season, and that's because he isn't a great shot-blocker. He averages 1.1 per game for his career, but after 11 seasons in the league, it stands to reason that his production is declining (his best season for blocks was 2012-13). He also stands to lose significant value if the Celtics trade for a forward or big, as both logic and experts suggest they might.

Other suggestions: Jerami Grant, Thunder; Lucas Nogueira, Raptors