This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Regular daily gamers should be careful of Thursday's matchup between the 76ers and the Jazz. For the last few years, and even earlier this season, the 76ers were an enticing fantasy opponent. However, their defense has improved significantly, ranking as one of the best in the league over the past 10 games. Though their defense will probably be worse without Joel Embiid (rest), the last two times he rested they held their opponents to 79 and 96 points. This is not an overall advantageous matchup for the Jazz.
The Grizzlies and Cavaliers defenses are also among the best in the league and worth avoiding, while the Mavericks, Suns, Lakers are worth targeting.
GUARDS
Kyle Lowry, TOR at PHO ($38): Lowry's workload is about as secure as anyone's in the league, as he has played at least 30 minutes in every game this season. Only once has he scored fewer than 28 fantasy points, all the way back in October, so his floor is very high. He is playing well lately, scoring at least 23 points and at least 42 fantasy points in four straight, while the Suns are a very favorable fantasy opponent.
Seth Curry, DAL at LAL ($11): This matchup is very fantasy friendly, as neither team is capable of effective defense. Curry has been great recently, averaging 11.7 points, 3.9 assists and 2.6 threes in 26.4 minutes per game over his last seven. He's has long been underpriced, and his value Thursday is even higher than usual.
Andrew Harrison, MEM vs. CLE ($10): If Mike Conley (toe) is out, Harrison borders on must-use status based on his earlier performances this season when filling in for Conley as a starter. If Conley plays, Harrison is probably safe to ignore.
Other suggestions: Josh Richardson, MIA at CHA ($12); Nick Young, LAL vs. DAL ($16)
Guard to Avoid
Sergio Rodriguez, PHI at UTA ($17): Rodriguez has played well recently, earning his way back into frequent fantasy use. However, most of his value is in his ability to assist, and the Jazz are a terrible opponent for passers. They allow the fewest assists per game by a huge margin, as their opponents average at least 20 percent fewer assists than league average. With such a hit to his major source of value, Rodriguez is not worth using.
FORWARDS
Robert Covington, PHI at UTA ($22): Covington missed three of the last four games while Joel Embiid rested, so unfortunately there is not much data on how Embiid's absence impacts Covington's value. Logically, however, it seems that Covington will be asked to carry a bigger load on offense, and perhaps attempt extra three-pointers in an effort to improve spacing. Since returning from a knee injury earlier this month, Covington has played well, seeing increased minutes and scoring more.
Thomas Robinson, LAL vs. DAL ($11): Ever since Larry Nance (knee) got hurt, Robinson's minutes have become more reliable. He has yet to crack the 20-minute mark during this stretch, but he is now reliably seeing workloads in the high teens. Robinson is a talented rebounder and the Mavericks are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league.
Other suggestions: Justise Winslow, MIA at CHA ($21); James Johnson, MIA at CHI ($15)
Forward to Avoid
LeBron James, CLE vs. BOS ($54) and Kevin Love, CLE vs BOS ($38): First of all, both of these players are overpriced. James needs around 60 fantasy points to fantasy profit, while Love needs to score in the low 40s, and neither reaches those marks with any sort of frequency. Additionally, this is one of the worst matchups available Thursday, as Celtics opponents have the sixth-worst field goal percentage and three-point shooting percentage this season.
CENTERS
Rudy Gobert, UTA vs. PHI ($29): While I'm avoiding most of the Jazz, Gobert is appealing. With Embiid out, Jahlil Okafor will be his primary matchup, and Okafor is a bad defender. Okafor hasn't even been rebounding very well this season, averaging fewer per minute than he did as a rookie. Gobert is in good shape to extend his current double-double streak to 12 games.
Timofey Mozgov, LAL vs. DAL ($10): Mozgov is another beneficiary of the Nance injury, playing at least 24 minutes in every game since Nance suffered the injury. In three of those games, he has scored at least 21 fantasy points, and as mentioned, this is a game to target.
Other suggestions: Steven Adams, OKC at MEM ($19); Jonas Valanciunas, TOR at PHO ($18)
Center to Avoid
Jahlil Okafor, PHI at UTA ($16): This is less of an "avoid" and more of a "make an informed decision." None of the centers look really bad Thursday, and there is a good chance I use a center in my utility slot. A lot of managers will be quick to use Okafor because of Embiid's absence, but that is not necessarily a good idea. The last two times Embiid sat and Okafor played, Okafor's production didn't really change. He saw more court time, but it didn't translate to extra fantasy points. There is a good chance Okafor earns some profit Thursday, but that is more due to his low price than Embiid's absence.
