This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
There are only five games on the slate Thursday and several of the toughest defenses in the league are in action. The Warriors, Spurs and Celtics all rate among the top-5 defenses per possession over the past 10 games. On the flip side, the Magic and the Lakers have been the most porous during that same period.
GUARDS
Jeff Teague, IND vs BOS ($28): The Celtics' defense is imposing, and that's a legitimate concern. But Teague has been on a tear lately, scoring more than 40 fantasy points in four consecutive games, and he has four double-doubles in his last six. On the season, he averages a small fantasy profit, and that has only improved with his recent play.
Justin Holiday, NY vs ORL ($10): This discount price invites us to bring home the Holiday cheer. Holiday has played 20 minutes in four straight games, scoring at least 12 fantasy points in each of them. As mentioned above, his opponent's defense is in disarray. They are in such bad shape that it is tough to declare any one position their "worst," but if pressed, I'd award the title to the Magic guards, as they allow slightly more points per possession and rebound at a pathetically low rate.
Other suggestions: Nick Young, LAL at MIA ($14); Josh Richardson, MIA vs. LAL ($12)
Guard to Avoid
Chris Paul, LAC vs SA ($43): Paul costs too much and the Spurs are too good. Paul has posted profit-worthy numbers only three times in his last eight games, and he averages a slight deficit on the season. Meanwhile, the Spurs are the fourth-most efficient defense in the league over the last 10 game, and the second-best against guards. Spurs opponents are the second worst three-point shooters in the league, and they also rank in the bottom-10 in opponent points, rebounds, assists, blocks and field goal percentage.
FORWARDS
LaMarcus Aldridge, SA at LAC ($26): Expensive forwards are thin Thursday. Most are either overpriced (Paul George, Kawhi Leonard) or are in danger of resting the entire fourth quarter in a blowout (Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Kristaps Porzingis). Aldridge is in a game between two good teams, increasing the need for him to play big minutes, and he's scored 33 fantasy points in consecutive games.
Kyle O'Quinn, NY vs. ORL ($13) OR Willy Hernangomez, NY vs. ORL ($10): This situation is odd, and I'm not sure which player is the right choice, but there is a lot of profit potential in getting it right. O'Quinn has at least 19 fantasy points in seven of his last nine while Hernangomez has hit the same mark in four of his last five. The problem is that, over the last two games, each of these players has one night with single-digit minutes and single-digit fantasy points. Both times, the other played well. This situation is a great risk for GPP contests, since the possible payoff is large and most fantasy managers are going to avoid this situation until more clarity emerges. Pick one, not both.
Other suggestions: Jae Crowder, BOS at IND ($23); Kelly Olynyk, BOS at IND ($10); James Johnson, MIA vs. LAL ($13)
Forward to Avoid
Kevin Durant, GS at BKN ($48): Durant is here over his teammate Green because Durant costs much more. This price is really high, as it requires at least 55 fantasy points to profit. But what I'm really worried about is how big of a mismatch this game might be. Over the last 10 games, the Warriors have the third-best offense and third-best defense in the league, while the Nets have the seventh-worst offense and eight-worst defense. The Warriors don't need much from any of their stars to win this game, and I'm concerned that a big lead will result in fewer minutes, limiting Durant's ability to accumulate stats.
CENTERS
Hassan Whiteside, MIA vs LAL ($45): I'm a little worried that this game could turn into a blowout that limits Whiteside's minutes. But the Lakers are trending slightly up, and the Heat are nowhere near as good as the Warriors. Lakers opponents lead the league in field-goal percentage, though they are below average in rebounds and blocks, two areas Whiteside relies on for value. Whiteside has a double-double in five straight games, he has scored at least 20 points in three of his last four, and he has at least 50 fantasy points in two of his last four.
Other suggestions: Pau Gasol, SA at LAC ($19); Bismack Biyombo, ORL at NY ($13); DeAndre Jordan, LAC vs. SA ($29)
Center to Avoid
Nikola Vucevic, ORL at NY ($26): The price is fair, but Vucevic has been too volatile lately. Is he a major part of the rotation or not? His minutes over the last four games have been 40, 25, 31 and 23. Is he a 20-point, 10-rebound stud or is he a single-digit scorer? In those games, he twice went 20-and-10, but in the other two he averaged 8.5 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. We don't need to worry about what the answers to those questions are because there are a lot of other good options at center Thursday.
