This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Wednesday is packed with an 11-game slate, which means scores needed to win are likely to be higher than usual. Try to target the Suns at Nuggets game, as both teams rank amongst the five-worst per possession defenses in the league, as well as the five-fastest teams. That game has all the ingredients necessary for a scoring bonanza.
GUARDS
DeMar DeRozan, TOR vs. GSW ($43): DeRozan has started the season on fire, and he is showing no signs of cooling off. He has scored at least 32 points in eight of 10 games and is averaging 34.0 points on a whopping 23.3 field goal attempts in 37.1 minutes per game. Since almost all of DeRozan's production comes from points, his fantasy value is easier to track and anticipate. The Warriors have operated a barely average defense this season, and they are running at one of the fastest paces in the league, as their opponents rank seventh in the league in scoring. DeRozan's price is fair, and this is a favorable opponent.
Tim Frazier, NOP at ORL ($28): Frazier has had a great start to the season, filling in admirably for Jrue Holiday. This is the Pelicans' last game before Holiday makes his season debut Friday. Either Friday or very soon thereafter, Frazier will return to the bench and experience a drastic cut in his workload. Wednesday is his last opportunity to showcase his talents and prove that he has earned an ongoing role in the rotation. The Magic are a fantasy friendly opponent and the price is fair, but I consider those are secondary appeals.
Other suggestions: Devin Booker, PHO at DEN ($29); J.J. Barea, DAL at BOS ($18); Seth Curry, DAL at BOS ($10)
Guard to Avoid
Matthew Dellavedova, MIL at ATL, ($17): Dellavedova has been fantastic to start the season, and he has led many a daily lineup to victory with his big numbers and low prices. However, he has cooled off the past few games, scoring 12 fantasy points or fewer in three of his last five games, including single-digit points in four of those. The Hawks are the second-toughest defense in the league per possession, they rank in the top half of the league in opponent assists, and they allow the fewest rebounds. I think Dellavedova will return to his early season value eventually, but not Wednesday.
FORWARDS
Rudy Gay, SAC vs. SAS ($29): Gay has scored between 15 and 30 points in every game and is averaging 22.3 per game – almost the exact middle of that range. Facing off against Kawhi Leonard and the Spurs is cause for legitimate hesitation, but his below-market price makes the risk worthwhile. Gay's worst game so far was a 16-point, 21.4-fantasy-point outing, and a repeat of that would represent a deficit in your lineup. However, in every other game he has scored at least 29.1 fantasy points, which is break-even value or better. He has exceeded 35 fantasy points in six of 10 appearances, all of which represent significant profit.
Channing Frye, CLE at IND ($11): Frye is averaging 3.0 three-pointers per game this season, which is a floor of 10.5 fantasy points. That level of production means he could do nothing else the entire game and still break even value-wise given his low salary. On the flip side, the Pacers' are allowing the fifth-most three-pointers per game this season.
Other suggestions: Harrison Barnes, DAL at BOS ($23); Thabo Sefolosha, ATL vs MIL ($11)
Forward to Avoid
LeBron James, CLE at IND ($54): For $54, I want 60 fantasy points, or at least an absolute, bear-minimum, surefire 50. But James has yet to reach 60 fantasy points, and he has passed 50 just five times in his first 10 games, averaging only 48.8 per game. Maybe I spend this kind of salary on a night with a small slate of games, when the scores required to win are generally lower, but he's just not worth his cost when so many other options are available.
CENTERS
Marcin Gortat, WAS at PHI ($27): Gortat has five double-doubles in nine games, and he grabbed nine rebounds in his other outing. The 76ers play the first night of a back-to-back Wednesday, and so either Joel Embiid or Jahlil Okafor are likely to sit out, while the other plays limited minutes. That makes for a very favorable matchup for Gortat, since he will probably end up spending considerable time playing against Richaun Holmes.
Lucas Nogueira, TOR vs. GSW ($11): Nogueira sat out the first five games of the season, but he has been very productive since returning, and particularly of late, averaging 8.7 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.0 blocks, 2.0 steals and 1.0 assists for 29.8 fantasy points in 27.3 minutes per game over his last three. His production suffered in limited minutes Tuesday, but part of that was because he was in significant foul trouble.
Other suggestions: Tyson Chandler, PHO at DEN ($15); Mike Muscala, ATL vs. MIL ($10)
Center to Avoid
Jonas Valanciunas, TOR vs. GSW ($30): Everything mentioned above about Nogueira also works to undermine Valanciunas' value. Valanciunas has not scored more than 14 points or 30 fantasy points since opening night. While his minutes rebounded Tuesday, that was in part influence by Nogueira's foul trouble, and Valanciunas' production was still to low to justify this cost.
