This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
With 11 games on the slate, the scores needed to cash will likely be high, making it imperative to find the right combination of value plays and high-ceiling players to reach those levels.
GUARDS
Chris Paul, LAC vs. POR ($45): The Blazers play fast, and their defense is a little worse than average. That works in Paul's favor, as in the five games that Paul has scored double-digit points, he has averaged 50.6 fantasy points per outing. He failed to reach double-digit points twice this season, but they came against two of the slower-paced teams in the league.
Sergio Rodriguez, PHI at IND ($19): Put simply, the price is still too low. Rodriguez's price has risen steadily since opening night, but it had a long way to go before it reached market value. His worst game of the season, a six-point, five-assist outing Monday that netted 19.3 fantasy points, would represent a fair return on this price. Any of his other five games represents substantial profit.
Other suggestions: J.J. Barea, DAL at GS ($14); Ish Smith, DET at PHO ($24); Brandon Jennings, NYK vs. BKN ($12)
Guard to avoid
John Wall, WAS vs. BOS ($46): The Celtics have yet to match their preseason expectations, but I try not to bet against mastermind coach Brad Stevens. The Celtics' defense has been porous through their early struggles, but they were one of the toughest defenses in the league last season, especially against guards. The Celtics are also well rested, having played only once in the last six days, while the Wizards have played three games in that span. Opponent aside, only once this season has Wall scored more than 45 fantasy points, and at this price, managers will be looking for more than 50.
FORWARDS
Tobias Harris, DET at PHO ($29): Harris raced out of the gate but stumbled in his two most recent contests. Look for him to get back on track against one of the highest-paced teams in the league, and one with a slightly worse-than-average defense. He also matches up against the most flawed position in the Suns rotation – Marquese Chriss is athletic but raw, and Jared Dudley, though an intelligent defender, is 31 and cannot match Harris' quickness.
T.J. Warren, PHO vs. DET ($23): Warren's price started low and hasn't risen far enough. His worst games so far were when he had 22.3 fantasy points on Halloween and 25.5 on opening night, both of which would be a fair return on this salary. In his other five games, he is averaging 39.8 fantasy points per outing. The Pistons are a relatively unfavorable opponent, but even a bad game for Warren is a good-enough game for this salary.
Other suggestion: Marcus Morris, DET at PHO ($22)
Forward to avoid
Derrick Favors, UTA at CHA ($25): Favors is coming off his best game of the season, a 16-point, 14-rebound double-double en route to 41.3 fantasy points. So why avoid him? That performance came against the 76ers, one of the more favorable fantasy opponents. It was also just his first game with more than 21 fantasy points since the season opener. The Hornets have the third-best defense per possession in the league. If it weren't for the last game against the 76ers, few would even consider Favors on Wednesday.
CENTERS
Marcin Gortat, WAS vs. BOS ($25): Gortat has posted double-digit rebounds in every game this season, and double-digit points in four of six. The Celtics remain without Al Horford (concussion), and with him out, Gortat is easily the most talented big man on the floor. Each game result has not strayed far from his average of 36.2 minutes and 30.1 fantasy points per outing.
Clint Capela, HOU at SAS ($13): Sorry if this story line is getting tired, but where there is cheap value to be had, it's my job to point it out, and this is very good value. Capela's price has barely moved since opening night, despite scoring more than 15 fantasy points in every single game. He doesn't play a ton of minutes, but he doesn't need that many to profit at this salary. Most of his value comes from points and rebounds, the most reliable categories for fantasy points.
Other suggestion: Tyson Chandler*, PHO vs DET ($15)
Center to avoid
Brook Lopez, BKN at NYK ($31): Lopez has been inconsistent this season, posting two games between 10-20 fantasy points, two between 20-30 and two above 30. Lopez is averaging 27.7 fantasy points per game, which includes one game with 52.7. That high point was reached on the back of 11 rebounds, but it was Lopez's only game with more than five.
