This article is part of our Category Strategy series.
The next two weeks are some of the most important waiver wire periods of the season. Do not let your emotions get in the way. It makes sense that you were proud of grabbing Buddy Hield one spot before your friend from New Orleans was about to pick him. But it does not makes sense to keep holding Hield if, say, T.J. Warren is still available on your wire. If Hield breaks out later, worry about that then – Warren is breaking out now.
Speaking of Warren, he is one of two general "what are you waiting for" pickups of the week. This will be the last time anyone mentions Warren in a waiver wire column, as soon he will be owned far too often to bother. He's already owned at 68% in Yahoo! and 83% in CBS, but his ESPN rate is still just 35%. He's a multi-category gem averaging 23.3 points and 6.7 rebounds through his first three games. The other is Tim Frazier. Currently sixth in the league in assists, the Pelicans starting point guard is also averaging solid points, rebounds, steals, and threes production in 31 minutes per game. He will continue in his role as long as Jrue Holiday (personal, out indefinately) remains away from the team.
The Kings play five games this week. This is the only time a team plays five in a week during November. The Heat and the Hornets, meanwhile, play only two games. The Hornets' games are Wednesday and Friday, the busiest days of the week for NBA games, further decreasing the value of Hornets players in leagues where you can set your lineups daily. Twelve teams play four games this week: Bucks, Bulls, Clippers, Grizzlies, Hawks, Jazz, Knicks, Lakers, Nuggets, Raptors, Suns, and Trail Blazers.
One other note, in most categories, I try to include one "out of position" option in the other suggestions. For example, there are plenty of players available who might make more threes than Justin Hamilton, but very few of them who can do so from the center position.
Points
Bojan Bogdanovic, Nets
(Ownership: ESPN – 16%; Yahoo! – 52%; CBS – 58%)
The Nets look bad. They seem to lack what we in the business call "good basketball players". Yet, somehow, they need five people to run around the court for a combined 240 minutes every night. Some of those people – intentionally or otherwise – will accrue statistics that can help in fantasy. A lot of people, myself included, thought that the Nets wing player most likely to benefit from the team's collective lack of talent was Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. While I maintain hope that Hollis-Jefferson will be a fantasy asset, the real gem here appears to be Bogdanovic. Averaging 28 minutes per game (Hollis-Jefferson is averaging only 24), Bogdanovic is averaging 17 points on highly efficient shooting, while also contributing in rebounds and threes. Will Barton is another scorer worth mentioning, and he has four games this week, but Gary Harris should return soon and in doing so sap much of Barton's value. Barton is also battling a sprained ankle, which he sustained Monday night.
Other suggestions:Will Barton, Joe Johnson, Marcus Morris
Three-Pointers
J.R. Smith, Cavaliers
(Ownership: ESPN – 51%; Yahoo! – 80%; CBS – 66%)
Smith is too highly owned to qualify for this column under normal circumstances, but I mention him for a few reasons. First, his ownership rate is falling, and he might fall below 50% in ESPN by mid-week. Second, even if the Smith owner in your league is still holding on, his stock is unusually low, and you might be able to trade for him at a discount. Smith is a career 42% field goal shooter, but he has shot only 34% so far this season. Even with his atrociously inefficient shooting, he has still managed eight made threes through three games and is still averaging 29 minutes per game. He started the season with two rough games, shooting a combined 6-21 from the field, but he already began to rebound in game three. His field goal percentage and scoring numbers should return to normal levels soon.
Other suggestions:Doug McDermott, Bulls; Justin Hamilton, Nets; Nick Young, Lakers
Rebounds
James Ennis, Grizzlies
(Ownership: ESPN – 6%; Yahoo! – 14%; CBS – 24%)
Unless you are in a deep league, this is probably a short-term add. The Grizzlies started the season undermanned at the wing, and Ennis has been the primary beneficiary. Tony Allen and Chandler Parsons have been out with knee injuries, and Ennis has averaged 30 minutes per game in their absence. Both Allen and Parsons could return later this week, but even when they return, Ennis has played well enough to earn a steady role in the rotation. Ennis is averaging 7.3 rebounds per game, and is worth using in 10-team leagues right now. When Allen and Parsons return, Ennis could retain some value in deeper leagues.
Other suggestions:Trevor Booker, Nets; Tyson Chandler, Suns; Matt Barnes, Clippers
Assists
Ish Smith, Pistons
(Ownership: ESPN – 35%; Yahoo! – 49%; CBS – 79%)
For three more weeks, and possibly longer, Smith is the Pistons' starting point guard. He is averaging 30 minutes per night, and he is using that time productively, putting up 11 points and 7.3 assists per game so far. The fantasy community's collective hesitancy in embracing Smith is one of the early mysteries of the 2016-17 season. Reggie Jackson is out. Beno Udrih is Smith's only backup. Even if the production is only short-term, it's usually almost impossible to find seven assists per game on the waiver wire. Udrih, mentioned below for deep leaguers, hasn't been too shabby himself, but there is no indication that he could surpass Smith on the depth chart. Sergio Rodriguez isn't the focus of this blurb this week, but he is a longer-term option and his stock is rising fast – he is widely available now, but he could be too heavily owned by next week to qualify for this article.
Other suggestions:Sergio Rodriguez, 76ers; JJ Barea, Mavericks; Matthew Dellavedova, Bucks; Beno Udrih, Pistons; Wade Baldwin IV, Grizzlies
Steals
JaMychel Green, Grizzlies
(Ownership: ESPN – 13%; Yahoo! – 30%; CBS – 63%)
Over the course of his career, Green has averaged one steal for every 32 minutes played. So far this season, Green is averaging 33 minutes per night. His 2016-17 steals pace is slightly below that of his entire career, but that is likely to due to the small sample size. He also adds some rebounding help and appears to have added three-pointers to his repertoire this offseason.
Other suggestions:Trevor Booker, Nets; JJ Barea, Mavericks; Thabo Sefolosha, Hawks; Wade Baldwin IV, Grizzlies
Blocks
Dewayne Dedmon
(Ownership: ESPN – 5%; Yahoo! – 13%; CBS – 14%)
After the draft, blocks are one of the hardest categories to come by. This truism has been exacerbated in recent years by the centralization of blocks league-wide, a pattern I noted in my Numbers Game column. Briefly, what I found was that the total number of blocked shots among fantasy's top players was remaining near-constant, but that those blocks were being accrued by a shrinking portion of those top players. What this means for your fantasy team is that, sure, you prefer your waiver addition average more than 18 minutes per game, but if you are desperate for blocks, you probably don't have a choice. Dedmon is averaging two blocks per game, despite his limited minutes. The other block choices available offer either fewer blocks, less consistency, or both.
Other suggestions:Jerami Grant, 76ers; Mike Muscala, Hawks
Field Goal Percentage
Tyson Chandler, Suns
(Ownership: ESPN – 18%; Yahoo! – 28%; CBS – 51%)
After all these years, Chandler is still out there, still doing the things he does best. Mostly that amounts to grabbing rebounds, which he is averaging a staggering 11.3 per game. But Chandler's lesser-appreciated skill is his ability to make almost every shot he attempts. He doesn't attempt many shots, which limits his ability to impact a team's field goal percentage. However, in 2015-16, he ranked 33rd in the league in field goal percentage impact, and that was on only 4.8 attempts per game. Before Monday's blowout loss to the Clippers, Chandler was averaging 30 minutes per game and 4.3 field goal attempts per game.
Other suggestions:Sergio Rodriguez, 76ers
Free Throw Percentage
J.J. Barea, Mavericks
(Ownership: ESPN – 9%; Yahoo! – 25%; CBS – 36%)
Barea's season is off to a weird start. Typically speaking, we don't often think of players in their 11th season as having "breakout" seasons – the closest analog I remember is Kyle Korver "breaking out" in his 10th season, his first as a Hawk. Regardless of whether Barea qualifies as a breakout, he is playing 33 minutes per night through the first three games this season. Throughout his career, Barea has averaged more than two free throw attempts per 36 minutes, and he is a career 80% shooter. This season, he has attempted six, four, and seven free throws. Even if that pace slows down, as long as his workload keeps up, he should continue to attempt enough shots to make some impact on your team. He's also helping out in points, assists, and threes.
Other suggestions:Bojan Bogdanovic, Nets; Al-Farouq Aminu, Trail Blazers; Will Barton, Nuggets; Allen Crabbe, Trail Blazers; Nick Young, Lakers
