This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Salaries for Thursday's contests were announced before Wednesday's games started, which means salaries are fully based on last season's production (except for the Spurs and Blazers), which means there are a few significant inefficiencies. The best players to target, therefore, are those in new or expanded roles.
The first nights of the season make great opportunities for traditional fantasy gamers to dip their toes into the daily game. Due to the pricing inefficiencies, most of the players below are those already identified as "sleepers" in most traditional formats; similarly, most of the players to avoid are those who traditional leagues drafted too highly.
GUARDS
Dennis Schroder, ATL vs. WAS ($21): Schroeder averaged 20 minutes per game last season when he was backing up Jeff Teague. The Hawks liked what they saw in Schroder, so this offseason they promoted him to starter and shipped Teague to the Pacers for a first-round pick. Schroeder's workload should now increase more than 50 percent, but his price still reflects last season's production.
Ty Lawson, SAC at PHO ($15): Lawson is expected to play play 30-40 minutes per night while Darren Collison serves an eight-game suspension, and with that quantity of minutes, he should have no difficulty returning a profit on this paltry salary. His career, overall, may be in decline, but he still averaged 9.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 6 assists, and 1.4 steals per 36 minutes last season.
Other suggestions: J.J. Redick, LAC at POR ($19)
Guard to Avoid
Michael Carter-Williams, CHI vs. BOS ($17): The Bulls added point guard Rajon Rondo and shooting guard Dwyane Wade to small forward Jimmy Butler this offseason. Apparently concerned that their lineup wasn't guard-heavy enough, they traded for Michael Carter-Williams earlier this month. He should get a chance to see the court when Rondo needs a break, but Carter-Williams shouldn't come anywhere near the 30 minutes per game he played last season. With his workload possibly cut in half from, there is little room for optimism about Carter-Williams on Thursday.
FORWARDS
LaMarcus Aldridge, SAS at SAC ($34): It was just another day at the office Tuesday, as Aldridge scored 26 and added 14 rebounds, three assists, one steal, and one three-pointer in 35 minutes against the Warriors. The production was great, and he won't play that well every night, but it's all within the range of what we expect – and have seen before – from Aldridge. The scoring and rebounding was a little high, and he won't get a three every night, but he also will usually add a block to his box score. And, perhaps most importantly, he did all that against a Warriors squad that has been one of the best defenses in the league for the past two seasons. Last season, Aldridge took a step back and played fewer minutes than he had since his rookie season, but with Tim Duncan now gone, he can return to full-time duty. Two seasons ago, Aldridge's last in Portland, he averaged 23.4 points and 10.2 rebounds per game.
Jonathon Simmons, SA at SAC ($10): I'm not hopping on the Simmons bandwagon yet, but I've given them my email address so they can let me know when they are in town. Simmons is 27 years old, entering his first NBA season after spending several years in the D-League. It is unreasonable to expect him to repeat Tuesday's 20 points and 30 fantasy points in 28 minutes every night – at least not until we have seen him repeat the performance. But Simmons' salary is so low that he could literally halve Tuesday's production and still net a profit. I'm not a believer in Simmons yet, but I am a big believer in minutes, and Simmons should get plenty of those Thursday.
Other suggestions: Jae Crowder, BOS at CHI ($26)
Forward to avoid
Kawhi Leonard, SA at SAC ($42): Leonard had one of the best games of his life Tuesday, setting a career-high for points, shooting a perfect 15-15 from the line, and adding five steals. It was an excellent night, and it totaled 53.5 fantasy points. For a price of $42, I want a player to earn at least 50 fantasy points – barely fewer than Leonard got when playing at his absolute best. Leonard has a low production floor, so if you are thrilled about your lower price options and just want your expensive player to do no harm, the Leonard is a fine option. But if you need your most expensive player to carry your lineup, there are higher upside options elsewhere.
CENTERS
DeAndre Jordan, LAC at POR ($33): Last season's Blazers were one of the most worst teams in the league against centers, allowing the most points and the sixth-most rebounds to the position. On Tuesday, Rudy Gobert scored 12 points, grabbed 14 rebounds and blocked two shots. Gobert and Jordan share many of the same strengths, especially in terms of their statistical output, and Jordan is bigger and more athletic than any of the Blazers' bigs.
Other suggestions: Dwight Howard, ATL vs. WAS ($29); Robin Lopez, CHI vs. BOS ($21)
Center to Avoid
Mason Plumlee, POR vs. LAC ($23): Much of Plumlee's value comes from his ability to get rebounds, but those will be hard to come by facing off against the reigning no. 2 rebounder in the league. Plumlee fouled out of Tuesday's game after scoring only 4.7 fantasy points, and even assuming he stays in the game and exceeds that low threshold, he is still unlikely to return a profit on this salary.
