Category Strategy: It's Never Too Early to Start Improving

Category Strategy: It's Never Too Early to Start Improving

This article is part of our Category Strategy series.

It's never too early to improve your fantasy team.

In your post-draft excitement, you've analyzed your own team and noticed some gaps. Maybe Clint Capela fell to you late, and now you're considering punting free throws. Maybe you doubled up on the Lopez brothers, and now you're looking short on rebounds. Or you got excited about Emanuel Mudiay's upside, and only later remembered how damaging his field goal shooting is.

That's where this column comes in. I identify players available in roughly 50% of leagues (or more; looking at ESPN, Yahoo!, and CBS ownership rates) who can contribute in each of the eight main categories. In the early part of the season, that 50% threshold will be more flexible, since early ownership rates vary wildly based on each site's preseason projections.

When appropriate, I will highlight a player who will not help in a category right away, but might be helpful in that category down the line. These players will be listed as "long-term stash options", and after each player I will include a short parenthetical explaining what is holding him back in the short term.

In some league settings, there is an advantage in having a player with extra games each week. As such, at the top of each week's article, I'll make note of teams with atypical numbers of games.

During opening week, the Spurs are the only team to play four games – eight teams play two games and 21 play three. The eight teams to play only two games are: Hawks, Bulls, Nuggets, Clippers, Timberwolves, Knicks, 76ers, Raptors, and Wizards.

In most weeks, I will jump right into the categories here. While my focus is on category-by-category contributors, this article is still a waiver-wire-who-do-I-add column. That said, no matter your categorical needs, if Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is available in your league, go get him now. Don't even read the rest of this article first (though you should come back and read it after!). RotoWire ranks him as our 66th best overall player in 8-cat, and our 54th best in 9-cat. His ownership is absurdly low: 20% in ESPN, 78% in Yahoo!, and 62% in CBS.

Points

Lou Williams
(Ownership: ESPN – 25%; Yahoo! – 41%; CBS – 27%)

Williams should come off the bench most of the season, and that's a situation he's well accustomed to – in his 11-year career, he's only started 89 games. Once again, he should average somewhere between 23 and 29 minutes per game, as he has during eight of his past nine seasons. He has averaged at least 19 points per 36 minutes through four of his last six seasons, including both 2014-15 and 2015-16. If his maintains that scoring rate and stays on the court for at least 25 minutes per night, both very realistic assumptions, then he would average almost 14 points per game. Especially for leagues where lineups lock weekly, Williams is probably the most reliable scoring option available right now.

Jamal Murray
(Ownership: ESPN – 14%; Yahoo! – 37%; CBS – 71%)

Murray is not someone I want to rely on out of the gate, but he is a high upside target. Denver's backcourt is crowded, and Murray's main competitors for minutes are also young high-potential prospects, so he gets no advantage for his youth. Nonetheless, he was an excellent scorer at Kentucky, who was considered an "NBA-ready" prospect. With expected starter Gary Harris (groin) missing time, Murray will have an opportunity to earn a bigger role.

Other suggestions:Jamal Crawford, Ish Smith

Long-term stash option:Joel Embiid (limited minutes, sitting out early back-to-backs)
Three-Pointers

Mirza Teletovic
(Ownership: ESPN – 37%; Yahoo! – 41%; CBS – 38%)

Teletovic appears in line to be the Bucks' starting power forward. The Bucks have talent and length, but lack the outside shooting to stretch the floor – a perfect fit for Teletovic's skill set. He's unlikely to get a full starter's workload, but he'll still drain plenty of threes – last season, he averaged 3.9 threes per 36 minutes. He's made 2.9 threes per 36 minutes over his past five preseason games.

Other suggestions:Matt Barnes, Bojan Bogdanovic
Long-term stash option:Danny Green (out three weeks)

Rebounds

T.J. Warren
(Ownership: ESPN – 4%; Yahoo! – 29%; CBS – 29%)

Welcome to the T.J. Warren band-cart, conducted by yours truly. We'll upgrade to a wagon as soon as we expand enough to justify the extra space. Warren is expected to start at the beginning of the season, and his primary competition for minutes is P.J. Tucker, who is 31 years old and is still coming back from a back injury. During 2015-16, in games when Warren played 30 minutes or more, he averaged 19.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.4 threes – just outstanding all-around production. He's averaging 6 rebounds per 36 minutes this preseason. That's not fantastic rebounding, but it is above average for a small forward, and I needed to fit Warren into this article somewhere.

Other suggestions:Clint Capela, Zaza Pachulia, Marcus Smart

Assists

Ish Smith,
(Ownership: ESPN – 39%; Yahoo! – 59%; CBS – 78%)

Reggie Jackson will miss at least the first four weeks of the season, making Smith the only name in town.. The Pistons only have one other point guard on the roster, Beno Udrih, so Smith should get all the minutes he can handle until Jackson returns. When he saw 32 minutes per game for the 76ers last year, he averaged 14.7 points and 7 assists.

Tim Frazier
(Ownership: ESPN – 16%; Yahoo! – 52%; CBS – 65%)

Same situation as Smith, except with a less clear end date. Jrue Holiday (personal) is out with no timetable for returning, which makes Frazier the starting point guard. Per 36 minutes during the preseason, Frazier is averaging 8.9 assists, as well as a surprisingly impressive 7.3 rebounds. As long as Frazier is the starting point guard, he could legitimately be in the league's top five in assists per game.

Other suggestions:Tony Parker, Matthew Dellavedova
Long-term stash options:Jrue Holiday (out indefinitely for personal reasons)

Steals

Corey Brewer
(Ownership: ESPN – 1%; Yahoo! – 1%; CBS – 4%)

I dedicate this paragraph to all you deep leaguers out there – you discover the shallow-league players of tomorrow. I'm not sure if Brewer will ever rise to the level of shallow-league relevance, but I do know that he is a perfect fit for a Mike D'Antoni system. Roughly 80 percent of Brewer's body mass is pure energy – he literally makes a living on sprinting full-speed up and down and around the court for 20-ish minutes per night. Brewer can easily average one steal per game in that short window, and he did exactly that in 2015-16. His enthusiasm, speed, and ability to convert on fast breaks might even earn him a few extra minutes, and with it some notice in some 12 team leagues.

Other suggestions:Michael Carter-Williams, Marcus Smart, Clint Capela, Ish Smith

Blocks

Bismack Biyombo
(Ownership: ESPN – 26%; Yahoo! – 70%; CBS – 53%)

I want no part of the Magic's frontcourt mess – but I still drafted Biyombo late in a league where I felt short on blocks. The Magic made some curious moves this summer, highlighted by making their biggest free agent acquisition (Biyombo) someone who plays the same position as their incumbent leading scorer and rebounder (Nikola Vucevic). They also feature a pair of prominent power forwards, Serge Ibaka and Aaron Gordon, so dual center lineups are not likely (new coach Frank Vogel has said he plans to play Gordon mostly at small forward, he did so while acknowledging the Gordon is more naturally a power forward). But the Magic didn't fork over $68 million so Biyombo could guard their bench – even if he isn't a starter, he should still average close to 25 minutes per game. In 2015-16, he only needed 22 minutes to block 1.6 shots per game.

Other suggestions:Clint Capela, Amir JohnsonMatt Barnes, Jerami Grant, John Henson

Field Goals

Tony Parker
(Ownership: ESPN – 33%; Yahoo! – 50%; CBS – 79%)

Not many point guards positively impact your team's field goal percentage, and here is one who can do that while chiming in 5 assists per game. He's far past his fantasy prime, but he's still a well-rounded and steady performer. He's shot 48% or better from the field every season since 2004-05.

Other suggestions:Steven Adams

Free Throws

Jamal Crawford
(Ownership: ESPN – 52%; Yahoo! – 51%; CBS – 27%)

Among 2015-16's top 200 overall performers, Crawford ranked 12th in free throw impact. Of the eleven players above him, seven have first round ADPs, two have third round ADPs, one has a 7th round ADP, and the last one is out until at least March. If you didn't grab an elite free throw shooter early, Crawford is the only option left that truly makes a big difference. His free throw percentage has improved steadily throughout his career, and for the last two seasons he has shot above 90%. Not only is he great at making free throws, but he is also great at getting to the line. He averaged 3.4 attempts last season, very near the 3.7 attempts per game he has averaged since becoming a full-time backup in 2009-10.

Other suggestions: Lou Williams, Bojan Bogdanovic

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Rikleen
Rikleen writes the NBA column "Numbers Game," which decodes the math that underpins fantasy basketball and was a nominee for the 2016 FSWA Newcomer of the Year Award. A certified math teacher, Rikleen decided the field of education pays too well, so he left it for writing. He is a Boston College graduate living outside Boston.
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