This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defense to Avoid
Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks
Typically speaking, I focus this section on the toughest defense in action, while I focus the next section on the easiest defense in action. That approach won't work Thursday, however, since there are no tough defenses. Taking the long view, the Thunder have probably earned classification as a "mediocre defense," but even that lowly classification would be unwarranted praise if given to the Wizards, Bucks or Pelicans. Over their last 10 games, all four of these teams rank between 18th and 23rd in the league in opponent points per game. On the season, only the Thunder rank among the better half of the league there, but that fact only emphasizes that their defense is trending in the wrong direction. So I'm not so much "avoiding" the Wizards defense as I am staying away from the Bucks' stagnant and disappointing offense. The Bucks rank near the bottom of the league in points per game, partly because of their slow pace of play, but also because of their low points per possession – they rank in the bottom third of the league in all three categories. At the end of the day, however, it's hard to completely avoid any team when there are only four options to choose between.
Offenses to Use
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans
The Thunder defense may be struggling lately, but the same cannot be said of their offense. They have scored under 100 points once since Christmas – a 99-74 win against the Heat that was over before the end of the third quarter. They rank second – behind only the Warriors – in both points and points per possession, third in field goal percentage and seventh in three-point percentage. The Thunder dominate the league in rebound percentage - their margin over second place is the same as the gap between second and seventh - and their margin over third place is the same as the one between third and 14th. On top of all that, the team is showing some of its best offense of the season right now: over their past 10 games, the Thunder beat their own season averages in every statistic mentioned in this paragraph.
Teams on a Back-to-Backs
First game: None
Second game: Pelicans
DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook, OKC vs. NOP ($11,200): The point guard selection Thursday is an embarrassment of riches – I found seven of the 11 available options worthy of legitimate consideration for inclusion here. Westbrook is my favorite for several reasons: his ceiling doesn't exist and his floor is absurdly high – it's been almost three weeks since he scored fewer than 50 fantasy points. He runs a scorching-hot offense (see above) and is facing the easiest opponent available for a point guard. His price is fair. And, for what it's worth, he's a ton of fun to watch.
Other suggestions: Jrue Holiday, NOP at OKC ($6,800); Jerryd Bayless, MIL vs. WAS ($4,400)
Shooting Guard
Bryce Dejean-Jones, NOP at OKC ($3,700): Thursday's shooting guard crop looks terrible – there is not a single player I feel confident about. There are only three players I'm even considering for my lineups (the other two are Bradly Beal and Khris Middleton, but both cost more than they should. I'll probably end up using Dejean-Jones on all my rosters because I don't expect any of these shooting guards to post a profit, and Dejean-Jones' price is the lowest, so he does the least damage. Dejean-Jones played 19 minutes and had nine points, two assists and two rebounds for a respectable 17 fantasy points Wednesday against the Jazz. He's played at least 19 minutes in seven of his past eight games. He won't blow anyone away, but he costs little enough – and hopefully he'll perform well enough – to keep rosters competitive.
Other suggestions: Khris Middleton, MIL vs. WAS ($6,900); Bradley Beal, WAS at MIL ($6,500)
Small Forward
Jared Dudley, WAS at MIL ($4,500): Shameless shilling for fellow Boston College alum aside, there are plenty of reasons for non-Eagle fans to include Dudley on their roster. The Bucks struggle to defend shooting guards, small forwards and power forwards, and Dudley's price is a discount compared to his recent performance. Most appealing, however, is his recent consistency. In each of his last three games, he has scored in the low double-digits, shot better than 50 percent from the field and played more than 25 minutes.
Other suggestions: Kevin Durant, OKC vs. NOP ($10,400); Dante Cunningham, NOP at OKC ($3,100)
Power Forward
Serge Ibaka, OKC vs. NOP ($5,300): Another very shallow position here. I don't like any power forwards Thursday, but Ibaka makes for an interesting contrarian GPP play. He's been so bad lately that he is unlikely to show up on very many lineups, which means if he hits, his positive impact is magnified. In cash games, the risk is far too large to bother, but the top-heavy payment structure of tournaments requires some successful risk-taking. It's obvious that Ibaka's talent vastly exceeds his recent production – he's scored fewer than 20 fantasy points in four of his past six, yet he's also racked up more than 40 in two of his past seven. His salary is low, his opponent is on the easy side and he has more than enough skill to carry a fantasy team.
Other suggestions: Anthony Davis, NOP at OKC ($9,700); Ryan Anderson, NOP at OKC ($5,700)
Center
Marcin Gortat, WAS at MIL ($6,700): Like Dudley, one of Gortat's greatest assets is his consistency. In his last 10 games, Gortat has seven double-doubles, eight games with double-digit scoring, he's shot better than 50 percent eight times and had nine games with at least 26 fantasy points. On top of that, his price is several hundred dollars cheaper than it has been for most of the past month.
Other suggestions: Greg Monroe, MIL vs. WAS ($7,000); Omer Asik, NOP at OKC ($3,300)
INJURY REPORT
Out
John Henson, F, MIL (back)
Greivis Vasquez, G, MIL (ankle)
Tyreke Evans, G, NO (knee)
Eric Gordon, G, NO (finger)
Andre Roberson, G, OKC (knee)
Alan Anderson, G, WAS (ankle
Game-Time Decision
Gary Neal, G, WAS (leg)
