This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls
Of the eight teams in action Thursday, the Celtics and the Bulls rank first and second in defensive efficiency, and second and third in points against, respectively. However, the Celtics are the defense trending in the right direction. Over the last 10 games, the Bulls have fallen into the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency, while the Celtics remain in the top six. Chicago is on an impressive five-game winning streak, but those have been carried by the offense beating up on (mostly) below average defenses.
Offenses to Use
Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings
The Kings and Lakers are the two worst defenses playing Thursday, and the offenses should feast as a result. In the last 10 games, they rank second-to-last and third-to-last in defensive efficiency, and last and third-to-last in points allowed, respectively. With exactly one exception (the Lakers are average defending the three), both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in every meaningful defensive statistic. It's worth loading up on both teams, but the Lakers get the slight edge because they're healthier.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game: Lakers
Second game: Celtics, Jazz
DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Point Guard
Darren Collison, SAC vs LAL ($6,000): With Rajon Rondo (back) out Tuesday, Collison started and played 47 minutes en route to a double-double and 41 fantasy points. Those numbers were a little inflated by the game going into double overtime, but that shouldn't diminish his impressive performance. Assuming Rondo sits again, Collison would be in line for a heavy workload against a terrible defense. However, if Rondo plays, Collison should be avoided. The excellent showing Tuesday raised Collison's price significantly, making him overpriced for his usual backup role, while still underpriced if he's the starter.
Other suggestions: Isaiah Thomas, BOS at CHI ($7,800); Jordan Clarkson, LAL at SAC ($5,700)
Shooting Guard
Jimmy Butler, CHI vs BOS ($8,200): Maybe someday I'll find out what it is about Butler that devalues him so heavily in DraftKings' pricing algorithm. For the second year running, Butler is constantly priced at an eyebrow-raising discount. This is the case again Thursday. The Celtics' defense is intimidating, but Butler has been playing too hot recently for his opponent to change my mind about his price.
Other suggestions: Rodney Hood, UTA at HOU ($5,800); Lou Williams, LAL at SAC ($5,900)
Small Forward
Jae Crowder, BOS at CHI ($6,400): Based on his recent production, Crowder is a discount. But what I really like here is the workload expected. Crowder is a strong wing defender, and I expect him to spend a lot of time shadowing Jimmy Butler. Even if there is some defensive focus to the extra time, extra minutes are fantasy gold.
Other suggestions: Gordon Hayward, UTA at Hou ($7,400); Trevor Ariza ($5,700);
Power Forward
DeMarcus Cousins, SAC vs LAL ($10,300): Investing this much in any one player always concerns me, but I'm doubling down on my prediction that this game will show little evidence of defense. With several Kings ailing, they should have to rely even more heavily that usual on their star big man. Cousins is riding a strong hot streak, and none of the Lakers' bigs are fast or strong enough to shut Cousins down.
Other suggestions: Paul Millsap, ATL at PHI ($8,300); Carl Landry, PHI vs ATL ($3,300)
Center
Dwight Howard, HOU vs UTA ($7,100): Dwight Howard in 2015 is nowhere near as good as Dwight Howard in 2008. But, so far at least, Howard in 2016 has been rolling. More important than his recent streak, however, is the absence of Rudy Gobert (knee) and Derrick Favors (back). Without their main big men, Howard ought to be able to bully some backups and extend his current four game double-double streak.
Other suggestions: Pau Gasol, CHI vs BOS ($8,000); Jeff Withey UTA at HOU ($5,100).
INJURY REPORT
Out
Avery Bradley, G, BOS (hip)
Mike Dunleavy, F, CHI (back)
Joakim Noah, C, CHI (shoulder)
Sam Dekker, F, HOU (back)
Donatas Motiejunas, F, HOU (back)
Eric Moreland, F, SAC (foot)
Alec Burks, G, UTA (ankle)
Derrick Favors, F, UTA (back)
Rudy Gobert, C, UTA (knee)
Game-Time Decision
Tiago Splitter, C, ATL (leg)
Ty Lawson, G, HOU (ankle)
Marcus Thornton, G, HOU (personal)
Kobe Bryant, G, LAL (shoulder)
D'Angelo Russell, G, LAL (illness)
Omri Casspi, F, SAC (back)
Willie Cauley-Stein, C, SAC (finger)
Duje Dukan, F, SAC (leg)
Rajon Rondo, G, SAC (back)
