This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid:
Charlotte Hornets vs. Toronto Raptors
Four of this six teams playing Thursday rate as above average defenses this year, so I'm highlighting the one fantasy players are most likely to overlook. Very quietly, the Hornets have ranked as a top-10 defense in opponent points and opponent points per possession, and rank within the top-15 in opponent field goal percentage and opponent three-point field goal percentage. Additionally, they are trending in the right direction – over the past 10 games, they have improved in all four categories, including rising all the way to second in the league in opponent points per possession. The Raptors' offense is above average, but barely.
Offenses to Use:
Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are the worst defense in the league. In all four of the categories discussed above, the Lakers rank in the bottom five over their last 10 games. Astoundingly, that sentence actually makes the Lakers sound better than they actually are – they rank worst or second-worst in three of the categories, but are tied for fourth-worst in opponent three-point field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Rockets' offense is one of the most efficient in the league, as well as one of the fastest. Interesting fantasy-relevant side-note about this game: who is going to get all the rebounds? Both teams attempt more shots than average, rank in the bottom third for field goal percentage and rank in the bottom third for rebound percentage. I'd feel good about using any player on either of these teams who gets a lot of their fantasy value from rebounds.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game: Raptors
Second game: Hornets, Thunder
DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Point Guard
Jeremy Lin, CHA vs. TOR ($4,200): Lin has scored more than 25 fantasy points in four of his last five games. For the sake of full disclosure, I must point out that the fifth game was a five-point, 10-fantasy-point stinker, which demonstrates the risk involved in rolling with a backup in fantasy. He's played at least 20 minutes in five straight, and over his last two games, against the stout defensive backcourts of the Celtics and the Grizzlies, Lin averaged 30 minutes, 15 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 three and 29 fantasy points per game.
Other suggestions: Russell Westbrook, OKC at CLE ($10,300); D'Angelo Russell, LAL vs. HOU ($5,400)
Shooting Guard
Kobe Bryant, LAL vs HOU ($6,100): At first, when my DraftKings database recommended Kobe, I assumed it had taught itself how to play a practical joke. Upon further investigation, the perhaps equally improbable conclusion – that Bryant is actually an excellent play for daily games right now – turned out to be the true explanation. Bryant has scored at least 30 fantasy points in six of his past nine games, including consecutive games with at least 22 points and six assists for 35 fantasy points. The better of those two was a 25-point, 50-fantasy-point outing against Thursday's opponent, the Rockets. Daily games are about total production, not efficiency, and Bryant's price is slightly cheaper than fair compared to his recent outputs.
Other suggestions: DeMar DeRozan, TOR at CHA ($7,100); J.R. Smith, CLE vs OKC ($4,900)
Small Forward
Nicolas Batum, CHA vs. TOR ($7,500): Batum caught some headlines with last week's triple-double, but he's been solid for a while. He's consistent because he can contribute in every category. Without DeMarre Carroll, the Raptors' wings are not exactly intimidating. However, Batum left Wednesday's game due to an illness and did not return. If he does not play Thursday, then Jeremy Lamb ($4,300) instantly becomes my first choice of shooting guards.
Other suggestions: Kevin Durant, OKC at CLE ($10,100); Trevor Ariza, HOU at LAL ($5,700)
Power Forward
Julius Randle, LAL vs HOU ($6,000): Power forward is probably the weakest position Thursday, so Randle is more of the least-bad option than someone to get excited about. But his minutes are consistent and he's a nightly double-double threat with tons of upside. Randle also participates in Thursday's juiciest matchup, and he's a player who derives a lot of his value from rebounds.
Other suggestions: Serge Ibaka, OKC at CLE ($6,100); Patrick Patterson, TOR at CHA ($4,000)
Center
Timofey Mozgov, CLE vs. OKC ($3,700): It's starting to look like Mosgov is back. His workload is increasing, and he's averaging 13 points and seven rebounds per game over his last two. As is often the case, DraftKings' salaries are slow to respond to a player returning from an injury, creating a major opportunity for daily players. Mozgov appears to be in that window of opportunity now.
Other suggestions: Roy Hibbert, LAL vs. HOU ($4,700); Frank Kaminsky, CHA vs TOR ($3,700)
INJURY REPORT
Out
Al Jefferson, C, CHA (suspension)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, F, CHA (shoulder)
Kyrie Irving, G, CLE (kneecap)
Iman Shumpert, G, CLE (groin)
DeMarre Carroll, F, TOR (knee)
Jonas Valanciunas, C, TOR (hand)
Game-Time Decision
Nicolas Batum, F, CHA (illness)
