This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid:
Indiana Pacers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
It's easy to overlook this year's Pacers. Sure, they project as an Eastern Conference playoff team, but hardly a contender to rival the Cavaliers. How excited can we get about a team starting C.J. Miles and Ian Mahinmi? But as unintimidating as their depth chart may appear, their defense is actually dominating the league – only the Spurs are holding opponents to fewer points per possession. Expect the Trail Blazers' middle-of-the-pack offense to struggle in a relatively slow-paced game.
Offenses to Use:
Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz
The Jazz are struggling, statistically speaking. For nine months (mid-February to mid-November) they were the best defense in the league. But over their last 10 games, they've become a sieve. During that period only six teams have allowed more opponent points per possession, and they have fallen into a tie for dead last in opponent field goal percentage. This swoon occurred with Rudy Gobert (knee) in the lineup. Now without their defensive centerpiece, the mostly-young and mostly-healthy Magic appear positioned for a strong night.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game: None
Second game: Nuggets, Pacers, Raptors, Spurs
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook, OKC at MIA ($10,400): Ask yourself: did anything happen in the past week that caused Westbrook to lose 15 percent of his value? My answer is a strong "no," but DraftKings' salaries appear to disagree. Westbrook had two "bad games" (note that, since this is Westbrook, one of these was a 20-point, seven-rebound, nine-assist outing when he "only" totaled 42.25 fantasy points) in his last four, causing his price to plummet. It's probably safe to consider those two nights flukes – he has totaled at least 60 fantasy points in six of his last eight. Westbrook doesn't spend much time priced below 11 grand, so take advantage while you can.
Other suggestions: Kyle Lowry, TOR vs. DEN ($8,500); Elfrid Payton, ORL at UTA ($6,100)
Shooting Guard
Victor Oladipo, ORL at UTA ($6,700): Since moving to a bench role four games ago, Oladipo's minutes have remained stable while his productivity has skyrocketed. In the four games before the switch, he shot a combined 10-for-31 (32 percent) and only once totaled more than 20 fantasy points. In the four games since he became a reserve, he has shot a combined 22-for-50 (44 percent) and scored more than 32 fantasy points in each outing.
Other suggestions: Monta Ellis, IND at POR ($6,000); Dion Waiters, OKC at MIA ($4,200)
Note: there are an unusually high number of decent cheap options at shooting guard Thursday – players I strongly considered but did not include as a recommendation above because of concerns about their consistency. While I won't personally use any of them, each of the following should be considered as high-risk, high-reward possibilities for gamers looking to save money at guard: Evan Turner, BOS at SAC ($4,800); Gerald Green, MIA vs OKC ($4,200); Gerald Henderson, POR vs IND ($3,100).
Small Forward
Gordon Hayward, UTA vs. ORL ($6,600): Statistically speaking, Hayward is a pretty run-of-the-mill pick. His salary is almost exactly where it should be, given his recent production. The reason Hayward stands out Thursday is the situation his team is in. Despite poor defensive play, they went 4-3 during a seven-game stretch against possible or probable playoff teams. Though their record survived the difficult schedule, they just lost arguably their most important player. If the Jazz really think they are going to make the playoffs this season, then they are going to need strong play and steady leadership from Hayward while Gobert is out. Western Conference playoff teams can't afford to lose games to the Magic. Hayward has shown that he is capable of elevating his play when the moment – and his team – requires it, and this feels like one of those situations.
Other suggestions: Kevin Durant, OKC vs. MIA ($10,100); Kawhi Leonard, SAS at MEM ($8,600); Matt Barnes, MEM vs. SAS ($4,300)
Power Forward
Trevor Booker, UTA vs. ORL ($4,000): Last week, when Derrick Favors missed a game, Booker started in his place and went off for 13 points, 15 rebounds, three assists, three blocks and two steals for 46.75 fantasy points in 38 minutes. Now with Gobert out, Favors is likely to shift over to center, and again Booker looks poised for a big increase in playing time. The Jazz have not officially announced who will start in Gobert's place, so be on the lookout for updates because it's possible that either Jeff Whithey or Trey Lyles could end up being the biggest beneficiaries here, in which case you should play them instead of Booker.
Other suggestions: Ed Davis, POR vs. IND ($4,600); Andrew Nicholson, ORL at UTA ($3,700)
Center
Ian Mahinmi, IND at POR ($4,700): Mahinmi may not offer much in brand name value, but he's long been underrated by the fantasy community. He's not flashy, and he doesn't attract attention with things like 20-point games or double-double streaks. Mahinmi just provides steady, reliable, and – most importantly – cheap production. Just like GEICO saves you 15 percent or more on car insurance, if you give Mahinmi a diet of 25 minutes or more and a mediocre or better supporting cast then he will repay you with a decent box score.
Other suggestions: Nikola Vucevic, ORL at UTA ($6,400); Nikola Jokic, DEN at TOR ($4,500).
INJURY REPORT
Out
Marcus Smart, G, BOS (leg)
Gary Harris, G, DEN (concussion)
Jusuf Nurkic, C, DEN (knee)
Myles Turner, C, IND (finger)
Jordan Adams, G, MEM (knee)
Jarell Martin, F, MEM (foot)
Brandan Wright, F, MEM (knee)
C.J. Watson, G, ORL (calf)
Chris Kaman, C, POR (ankle)
James Johnson, F, TOR (Achilles)
Jonas Valanciunas, C, TOR (hand)
Rudy Gobert, C, UTA (knee)
Game-Time Decision
Luol Deng, F, MIA (hamstring)
Amar'e Stoudemire, F, MIA (illness)
Caron Butler, F, SAC (knee)
