Oak's Corner: It’s a Didi Thing

The Week That Was

One of the bigger stories through the first three weeks of the season has been the massive start of Yankees shortstop Didi Gregorius. Didi finds himself hitting in the middle of some big power hitters in a great lineup, and he has responded in a big way, hitting .327 with five homers, 14 runs and 16 RBI. Just to round out the profile, Didi tossed in a couple of stolen bases through the first three weeks. Gregorius never had double-digit homers in any season until 2016 and now has topped 20 big flies in the last two seasons. Even more impressive, how about only four strikeouts against 14 walks already? He has always been a solid contact guy but has taken it to another level to start the year. He has never been a big walker, and while obviously the 20.3 percent walk rate isn't going to last (he was only 4.4 percent last year), if he takes a step up in that area, I think that will help him take a step up in batting average.

My main concern coming into the year with Gregorius was the mid-20 percent hard hit rate he posted in the last two seasons. The power has been fully supported so far in 2018 with a 38 percent hard hit to go with 50 percent fly balls. The hard hit rate is unsustainable at that level (he has never been over 30 percent), but if it takes a good bump up, combined with his propensity for fly balls and his home park (plus that lineup), it's a fantastic combo. I'm usually a sell high on guys who surprisingly start this hot, but I'm full hold on Didi, as I love what I see, not only while watching him hit this year, but also what I see looking closer at all of his stats.

With the Red Sox' insane season start (16-2...Seriously?), the slow start of Andrew Benintendi hasn't gotten a ton of attention. Benintendi was drafted in the fourth round of 15-team drafts this year and has yet to homer through his first 68 plate appearances before hitting his first on Thursday night. Due to the strength of the Red Sox lineup, he's managed to score 10 runs while driving in 10 runs and has swiped a couple of bags. Despite the lack of pop so far, Benintendi has some good stuff going on as he has dropped the strikeout rate almost seven percent to 10.3 while increasing his walk rate to a very high 17.6 percent.

The super low K Rate is a positive, but it has also come with a huge drop in Benintendi hitting the ball hard. His hard hit rate so far this year checks in at only 16.3 percent, good for fifth worst in all of MLB, only ahead of the powerful quartet of Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon, Jose Iglesias and Jose Peraza. Usually I wouldn't worry about someone like Benintendi having only one homer this early, especially for a guy who's projected only in the 20 to 25 HR range, but the lack of hard hit balls does concern me a bit. It's likely an early season aberration, maybe due to the weather affecting games, but after sporting hard hit rates above 30 percent in his first two seasons, I'm keeping an eye on that number. I love Benintendi's overall game and if his owner happened to be getting antsy at all about the lack of pop (maybe mention the bottom five hard hit rate if you get a chance), I'd love to trade for his skill set at any sort of discount (it's probably still too early, as his owner clearly liked him a lot to take him where he was getting drafted), but I want to see him hit the ball hard pretty soon here.

I was high on a healthy Garrett Richards (I know, talk about a unicorn) heading into the season. I knew the injury risk was real, but I thought that while he was on the mound, he'd really good, and that was worth the risk at the price due to his upside. Well, Richards has made his first four starts for the Angels with no health issues (hey, longer than he lasted last year), and while the ERA is fine at 3.60, the rest of his profile raises concerns. The primary concern early on is the number of free passes Richards has surrendered, with a walk rate of 6.75 BB/9. Richards has danced through the rain drops a bit so far with a .222 BABIP and an 84.7 percent strand rate that make his 3.60 ERA look pretty lucky. He's hard to hit, but obviously the .222 BABIP is coming up very soon.

On the flip side, the strikeouts have been very strong with a 10.80 K/9 rate that would easily be his career high as he has never topped 9.00 K/9 in any of his MLB seasons. The swinging strike rate is solid at 11.5 percent but pretty much in line with his last four seasons. A closer look at his game log shows that the walks weren't due to one huge walk game, as they have been an issue in each of his outings. Richards has at least three walks in each start, and the wildness has caused him to not be able to go deep into games at all, as he has yet to pitch six innings in a start. The craziest thing in his game log is that in two of the four starts, he has allowed only one measly hit.

It's not hard to see the upside if he can find some command, even with the lucky nature of his current 3.60 ERA. I'm not quite as high on Richards as I was four weeks ago, and while usually I look to move someone who could have a correction coming in his BABIP and strand numbers, I think the upside is still there, and maybe he's showing some rust with his command due to missing almost all of the last two seasons. The strikeout rate is a huge positive, but I believe health is one issue standing between Richards and a strong season when all is said and done.

FAAB Feelings

• Brandon McCarthy: McCarthy is owned in 15-teamers, but at only 44 percent owned in NFBC 12-teamers, he's an interesting add this week, as he's scheduled to make two starts for the Braves: first in Cincinnati against the 3-15 Reds, followed by a trip to face the Phillies. The issue with McCarthy is always injuries, and he already had one scare this year when he partially dislocated his nonthrowing shoulder while covering first base. When he was on the mound last year for the Dodgers, he was a solid arm, posting a 3.98 ERA in 92.2 innings, but his strikeouts did drop to 6.99 K/9.

  So far this season, B Mac has been good through four starts with a 2.91 ERA and three wins. His usual pinpoint control has been a bit off with a 3.32 BB/9 rate, but that should drop as the year goes on. The Braves are a fun, young offense now that Freddie Freeman came out unscathed from his latest hit by pitch scare, and with Ronald Acuna coming up soon, they should provide him with some solid run support if you need wins. He's going to spend time on the DL at some point, we all know that, but as a short-term pickup with a two-start week with the chance you can hang on to him for a bit longer, McCarthy is someone I'm bidding on in 12-teamers this weekend.

• Adam Frazier: With the injury to Josh Harrison, Adam Frazier falls right into more playing time and looks to be the Pirates leadoff hitter, at least when they face righties. If he can stick in that role, Frazier can help in deep leagues with runs, batting average and a few steals. In 121 games with the Bucs in 2017, Frazier hit six homers to go with nine steals, while compiling a .276 batting average. In the current batting average climate in MLB, finding someone who can help in BA (he hit over .300 in 2015, 2016 and 2017 in the minors) carries a good amount of value, and his dual eligibility at 2B and OF also helps out fantasy teams during this run of everyday playing time.

• Leury Garcia: This is a quick one only for deeper leagues, but I'm taking a stab on the White Sox outfielder. Starting center fielder Adam Engel has struggled out of the gate with a .179 average in 14 games, and he's striking out at a 28.3 percentage after a huge 34.8 percent strikeout rate in 97 2017 MLB games. That's just too many strikeouts for a guy without much power upside. Garcia has played in 12 games so far this year and has managed four swipes already and could be in line for more playing time given Engel's struggles. Garcia quietly had a solid 2017 campaign in Chicago, putting up nine homers and eight steals with a .270 average in only 87 games. Garcia doesn't have much power upside but he has a strong history of running in the minor leagues, and as someone who's only owned in six percent of 15-team NFBC leagues and zero percent of 12-team NFBC leagues, he could be a nice, sneaky add for a team needing steals with a guy who won't hurt your average.
  

Alex Colome came into 2018 with a long leash on the closer job in Tampa Bay after averaging 42 saves for the last two seasons, but he's been a mess to start the year. Through his first eight appearances, he has a 9.00 ERA in seven innings, but even more concerning is his 7.71 BB/9 rate. Colome experienced a huge strikeout drop off from 2016 to 2017, as he went from 11.28 K/9 to 7.83 K/9, and his current number for this season looks a lot more like 2017 than 2016 at 7.71 K/9.

On the positive side, his swinging strike rate so far this year has bumped back up more than 15 percent, which is similar to his rate in 2016. A look at Colome's velocity shows his fastball down almost one mile per hour, but he only throws that pitch 30 percent of the time as he relies on his cutter and that pitch checks in at 89.3 mph, nearly the same as 2017. I still think Colome has a decent hold on the job as the Rays are likely to give him some leeway to figure it out, but he has entered the realm where I at least take a look at who may slide into the job if he keeps up his struggles, and I think that guy is Jose Alvarado.

Alvarado was pretty good upon his call-up last season with a 3.64 ERA in 29.2 innings, but the ERA was hurt by a 66.5 percent strand rate. Alvarado is a converted starter who has posted double digit strikeouts numbers per nine throughout most of his minor league career. He's a lefty, which can be an issue for some managers to go to in the closer role, but I would hope that if they replaced Colome, it would be with the higher upside arm in Alvarado over the veteran Sergio Romo. So far in 2018, Alvarado has been great with 10 strikeouts and three walks in eight innings, sporting a 1.13 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. Alvarado is an intriguing speculative add right now in deeper leagues and someone to toss on your watch list in 12 teamers with a move to add if Colome struggles in his next couple of outings.

There has been some concern over Dodger Kenley Jansen's early season form, but that concern reached a whole new level when Jansen blew a save on Tuesday night in San Diego. He allowed a homer to Eric Hosmer, and while he allowed another run, he actually got off easy, as Chris Taylor robbed a would be homer by Christian Villanueva. Granted, with relievers, any rate stats this early are based on an extremely small number of innings, but Jansen's strikeout rate has come back to a mortal 9.45 K/9 and he has already walked three batters (none intentional) after issuing only seven free passes in 68.1 2017 innings.

This wouldn't concern me this early with a stud like Jansen, but the obvious (and much discussed issue) is his drop in velocity. His fastball (always really more of a cutter) is down two mph from 2017 to 91.3 mph, and his slider, which he doesn't throw very often, is also down two mph. For now, the Dodgers and Jansen seem to think he's a tweak or two away, and it's possible that a hamstring injury in spring affected his ability to get his arm all the way ready after so few spring outings. Manager Dave Roberts has been very clear that he's not even considering moving Jansen out of the closer role now, which seems pretty obvious considering Jansen's track record.

I think a two-week trip to the DL to get right is way more likely than him losing the job outright at any point during the season, and I'd bet on Jansen finding his form soon and would trade for him if you can get any serious discount on his draft day value. I read a number of people on Twitter commenting how far he would fall if drafts were right now, and while Tuesday was certainly concerning, I'd happily scoop him up at his new price.

Josh Fields is likely next in line for the Dodgers should Jansen need some time to get healthy after Fields' strong 2017 with the Dodgers where he posted a 2.84 ERA in 57 innings. He has also been great to start 2018 with a 1.00 ERA in nine innings with 12 strikeouts against only two walks. I'm most inclined to add Fields in a league where I own Jansen just to make sure to lock in the Dodgers closer if some news were to break on Jansen, but I am not running to add him in many spots as I really think if he takes over, it would only be a for a quick stint to let Jansen get his groove back.

Series of the Weekend

Blue Jays @ Yankees. One of the biggest surprises of the early going in the American League has been the Blue Jays, who sit at 12-6 after Thursday's loss in the first of a four-game set in Yankee Stadium this weekend. The Blue Jays offense has been exceptional, trailing only the Red Sox in the AL in runs per game with a huge 6.1 runs scored per game through their first 17 games, even with their No. 3 and No. 4 hitters, Josh Donaldson and Kendrys Morales spending time on the DL. The Jays are getting big starts from some unexpected sources, as Kevin Pillar has already scored 14 runs, while Curtis Granderson and Steve Pearce each have an OPS north of .950. The one real dead spot for Jays has been new acquisition Randal Grichuk who's hitting a paltry .093 through his first 54 at-bats in Toronto. Grichuk could soon lose at bats to Teoscar Hernandez who has been red hot since his recent call-up, hitting .400 with five extra base hits already in five games. How Toronto handles playing time when Morales and Donaldson come back will be very interesting.

The surging Jays offense will get a good test this weekend, as they're scheduled to face Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery and Luis Severino as the Yankees try to improve upon their 9-8 record. A big part of the reason the Yankees have been only hanging around .500 has been their pitching as their team ERA checks in at 4.68, good for bottom five in the AL. One of the biggest culprits has been Gray who has been flat out bad through three starts with a 6.92 ERA in 13 innings. Gray did face these Jays in his first start and he had a very odd outing where he struck out eight in only four innings, but also allowed seven hits and three walks. To no one's surprise, Severino has picked up right he left off in 2017 as he sports a 2.63 ERA and sparkling 0.96 Whip through his first four starts off the 2018 campaign.

The Yankees offense has been strong to start the year, averaging 5.6 runs per game, led by the aforementioned Gregorius. However, the Yankees are still waiting for their huge off-season add Giancarlo Stanton to join the party. After smoking two homers on Opening Day, Stanton has entered into a strikeout filled slump, hitting only .197 with three homers with 29 punch outs in only 66 at-bats. He will try to get healthy Saturday against Marcus Stroman who has been brutal to start the year with a 7.98 ERA through his first three starts. The Jays have been great to start the year, and this series in the Bronx is big for both teams, as the Jays try and create some early separation between them and the Yanks, but if the Jays are going to be serious contenders, they will need Stroman to find his 2017 form before too long.