Farm Futures: Anticipating Call-Up Dates

Getting an Extra Year of Control

According to the current CBA, players are entitled to free agency after six or more years of major-league service time. A year of service time is defined as 172 days on a major-league roster. A typical season used to last 183 days, but this year MLB lengthened the schedule to 186 days. As long as a player is called up with fewer than 172 days remaining in the season, they will be under their current team's control for seven years, instead of six. With most players, this is far more important than saving $10 or $20 million by dodging Super Two status. Good players are going to get paid, but having that extra year of control puts a team in a better bargaining position when they start to talk about a contract extension with young players, and it also gives the team an extra year right in the middle of that player's prime. April 13 is this year's date when teams can start calling up top prospects (with some notable exceptions) and retain that extra year of control.

Here are this year's top options to be called up on, or shortly after April 13:

Ronald Acuna, OF, Braves - My guess is that Acuna will be up and in the lineup on Friday, April 13 when the Braves begin a weekend series against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. That would have been my guess if he was struggling this spring, but the fact that he has an OPS over 1.000 and a 7:4 K:BB in 31 spring at-bats only further solidifies the fact he is ready to face big-league pitching. Jason Heyward made the Opening Day lineup for the Braves as a top prospect in 2010, which cost the Braves a year of control over Heyward, who was seen as a surefire star back then. That has zero bearing on what they will do with Acuna, however, as this is a different front office (a smarter one at that) and the Heyward decision was seen as a bad one at the time, and only looked worse with each passing year. I don't see Acuna hitting much better than .270 or .275 as a rookie, and I wouldn't be surprised if he only hit .250 or .255. However, 15-to-25 home runs and 20-to-30 steals are an inevitability if he stays relatively healthy. He should hit his way to either the No. 3 or No. 4 spot in a top-heavy Braves' lineup, and once he gets there, Freddie Freeman will either be hitting directly in front or behind him, so the counting stats should start pouring in.

Scott Kingery, 2B/3B/OF/SS, Phillies - Unlike Acuna, Kingery is not a near lock to be up on April 13, as there is a valid case for giving everyday at-bats to Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco and J.P. Crawford, at least early in the season. That said, Kingery is clearly ahead of Hernandez, Herrera and Franco in terms of being a franchise cornerstone, so one way or another he should be up playing almost every day by late April or early May. This situation is the most reminiscent to that of Cody Bellinger last year, as Kingery technically is blocked, but talent wise he's not blocked at all. Hernandez, Kingery and Crawford are all versatile enough to play multiple infield positions and Kingery has started playing some center field this spring, so there are a variety of ways this could work itself out. He has steadily moved up the top 400 prospect list this offseason, and he is now knocking on the door of the top 10. Nothing about his upside has changed (20-plus homer/30-plus steal potential) but I'm growing more and more confident about Kingery having a very high floor, as I just don't see him failing to be at least an average contributor in all five roto categories, and he has impact speed. Most managers are going to say nice things about their top prospects, but Gabe Kapler is clearly eagerly awaiting the day he gets to plug Kingery in as an everyday player.

Gleyber Torres, 2B/SS/3B, Yankees - Thankfully the Neil Walker news came out shortly before I submitted this, otherwise I would have said there was a good chance Torres would be up around the same time as Acuna and Kingery. I still think that's possible under certain circumstances, but it seems less likely. The No. 1 thing Torres has going for him is that he would be a plus defender at second base, something that can't be said of Walker. A five-man infield rotation of sorts would be possible if the Yankees think Torres is ready for the majors early this season, as Walker, Brandon Drury and even Greg Bird have enough flaws that they don't require everyday at-bats. This would give Torres a chance to gain eligibility at three infield spots in 2018. He has sort of a throwback skill set at second base -- great defense, plus hit tool, some pop and a little speed. He has a chance to hit better than .275 as a rookie while hitting 15-plus home runs with a handful of steals. It's even possible that he hits enough move up to No. 2 in the Yankees' lineup by season's end.

Willy Adames, SS/2B, Rays - It's the Rays, of course they're going to jump at the chance to gain an extra year of control. Adames spent all of 2017 at Triple-A, where he largely silenced critics who thought he might have to move off shortstop while being 19 percent better than the average hitter in the International League. It is unclear whether he will debut at shortstop or second base, but neither Brad Miller or Adeiny Hechavarria will stand in his way of getting everyday at-bats once he is up. I get why Adames doesn't get drafted in the same range as guys like Kingery and Torres, but his ADP since Feb. 1 should be higher than 471.5, which is where he's been going in NFBC leagues. As a 22-year-old, he has a chance to hit .260 with 15-plus home runs, a handful of steals and the runs and RBI that come with everyday at-bats.

Jake Bauers, 1B, Rays - Bauers and Adames could be called up on the same day in April, as they are on the exact same developmental track -- 22-year-olds set to debut after spending all of 2017 as well above league-average hitters at Triple-A. Both players will be more valuable in OBP leagues than AVG leagues, and both have a chance to get to double-digit homers and double-digit steals as rookies. C.J. Cron will be the primary first baseman over the first couple weeks, but then it should be Bauers' turn, with Cron moving into a DH rotation.

Here are the players who will need to be held down past April 13 to gain an extra year of control due to the fact they debuted in the majors late last season:

Victor Robles, OF, Nationals - If the Nationals want to maximize their years of control over Robles, they will hold him down until May 7 -- a Monday night game in San Diego. They may hold him down past May 7, but this is an organization that lives in the present, particularly in what is likely their final year with Bryce Harper, so if they hold him down it won't be strictly because of service time concerns. If the injuries to Adam Eaton and Michael Taylor cause either player to open the year on the DL, I could see Robles making the Opening Day roster. If neither Eaton or Taylor is going to miss significant time, then they would likely send Robles to Triple-A, where he could remain indefinitely. He is a high-reward prospect stash with a very hazy playing time outlook for 2018.

Lewis Brinson, OF, Marlins - If the Marlins want to maximize their years of control over Brinson, they will hold him down until May 9 -- a Wednesday afternoon game at Wrigley Field. As much as the general public hates the Marlins brass, it would be a good business decision to send Brinson to Triple-A after spring training, but the soft factors involved in such a decision might be too much for the front office to stomach. The drop off from Brinson to the next best big-league ready outfielder would be enormous. Pay for 400-450 plate appearances, double-digit homers and steals and a batting average around .240.

Austin Hays, OF, Orioles - If the Orioles want to maximize their years of control over Hays, they will hold him down until May 9 -- a Wednesday night game at home against the Royals. This is an organization that doesn't always do the "smart" thing, so while it makes sense to me to keep Hays down until the second week of May, I'm sure he'll be up before then if the Orioles really believe he gives them the best chance to win. I have no idea why they brought Colby Rasmus in, but they did, and I think he'll probably open the year as the starting right fielder while Hays beats up on Triple-A pitching for a month or two.

Miguel Andujar, 3B, Yankees - If the Yankees want to maximize their years of control over Andujar, they will hold him down until May 2 -- a Wednesday night game in Houston. Andujar is more likely than Gleyber Torres to have his 2018 production suppressed due to the Brandon Drury and Neil Walker additions, as unlike Torres, Andujar is a net negative on defense. He is still the Yankees' long-term third baseman, we just might not see him in the majors this year until May or June.

Walker Buehler, RHP, Dodgers - If the Dodgers want to maximize their years of control over Buehler, they will hold him down until May 8 -- a Tuesday night game at home against the Diamondbacks. This is a bit different than with the position players, as Buehler could be up in mid-to-late April and then sent back down to Triple-A whenever the Dodgers want to manage his workload, so they could play service time games all season long, making that May 8 date relatively useless.

Jack Flaherty, RHP, Cardinals - If the Cardinals want to maximize their years of control over Flaherty, they will hold him down until May 13 -- a Sunday afternoon game in San Diego. If the Miles Mikolas experiment continues on its current course, Flaherty will be in the Opening Day rotation. The Cardinals are definitely trying to win this year, and I would argue he is at least their fourth-best starting pitcher, behind Carlos Martinez, Luke Weaver, and maybe Michael Wacha. They aren't going to let the May 13 date factor into when he makes his first big-league start in 2018.

Alex Verdugo, OF, Dodgers - If the Dodgers want to maximize their years of control over Verdugo, they will hold him down until May 13 -- a Sunday afternoon game at home against the Reds. The Dodgers are the rare team that can afford to always be "going for it" while also paying attention things like service time. That's the nice thing about having one of the deepest organizations in the game. With that in mind, I absolutely think the May 13 date could play a role in when Verdugo gets the call this year. Once he is up, and hopefully playing almost every day, he could hit above .270 with 10-to-15 home runs and a half dozen steals in around 100 games.

Super Two Status

Usually a player must have accrued at least three years of MLB service time before being arbitration eligible, but those awarded Super Two status are the exception. If a player has fewer than three years of service time, but more than two AND they rank within the top 22 percent of all two-year players in terms of service time, then that player will become arbitration eligible. Super Two players get four years of salary arbitration instead of the typical three, and for a really good player, this can end up costing the team more than $10 million.

Last year's cutoff for Super Two status was two years, 123 days of MLB service time (written as 2.123). Attempting to manipulate the call-up of a top prospect because of Super-Two fears is a very inexact science, but there is a general range team's can work with. Here are the last five Super Two cutoffs:

2017: 2.123
2016: 2.131
2015: 2.130
2014: 2.133
2013: 2.122

A general rule of thumb is that if a team calls up a prospect prior to June 1, that player will have a good chance of being awarded Super Two status in a few years.

Considering there is no exact date involved, and it is dependent on what is happening with other players, it is impossible to pinpoint a player's call-up date based on Super Two ramifications. That said, here are some of the top players who could be strategically called up in June or July as their teams look to avoid giving them that extra year of arbitration:

Nick Senzel, SS/3B, Reds - Senzel has never played at Triple-A, so giving him a couple months there before calling him up could work perfectly in terms of fulfilling his minor-league development and also saving the Reds some money. There has been a lot of talk about him moving to shortstop, and while I don't expect him to even be an average defender there, it only matters on a rebuilding club if you think it could harm the psyche of your pitching staff, which is a valid concern. The Reds have put themselves in this position, and deploying Senzel at shortstop seems to be one of the better solutions to an imperfect setup.

Michael Kopech, RHP, White Sox - This is a tough one to predict. Kopech is probably already better than every pitcher expected to open the year in the White Sox's rotation, but he also only has 15 innings under his belt at Triple-A. I think Kopech could be summoned before June as long as he is commanding his pitches reasonably well, but if his performance to start the season is a bit uneven, we may not see him until June. He should be stashed in 15-team mixers, and I'm all for grabbing him outside the top 300 picks, although he has gone as high as 191 overall in an NFBC draft in recent weeks (and as low as 413).

Luis Urias, 2B/SS, Padres - I think Urias has shown thus far in big-league camp that he's already the Padres' best option at the keystone. That said, he only has 15 career plate appearances at Triple-A, so the rebuilding Padres may as well send him back to El Paso to start the season. It wouldn't be completely shocking if Urias was up before June, especially if Carlos Asuaje and/or Cory Spangenberg are mediocre in the big leagues. If everything goes roughly as expected, however, I think we see Urias in June, which would save the Padres the money that would come with an extra year of arbitration.

Austin Riley, 3B, Braves - Riley is likely ticketed for Triple-A after hitting .315/.389/.511 with eight home runs in 48 games at Double-A last year as a 20-year-old. I expect him to be up sometime this year. If he handles Triple-A pitching the way he handled Double-A pitching, he could be up just after the likely Super Two cutoff in early June. Part of the appeal with Riley is the fact he would likely hit fifth in the Braves' lineup, behind either Freddie Freeman or Ronald Acuna, which would result in plenty of opportunities to rack up counting stats.

A.J. Puk, LHP, A's - There was some buzz surrounding Puk last week after manager Bob Melvin didn't completely rule out the idea of the electric southpaw breaking camp in the big-league rotation. That's obviously not Melvin's decision, so while the skipper would probably love to have his best pitchers open the year in the majors, the A's would be silly not to at least get an extra year of control by holding Puk down for at least a couple weeks. Despite his success thus far in spring training and last year at Double-A, it would not be surprising if Puk dealt with some struggles in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, which could push his debut date to June. His NFBC ADP since Feb. 1 is 438.1, and he has been drafted as high as 251 overall in a recent draft (and as low as 598).

Austin Meadows, OF, Pirates - Considering how mediocre Meadows was at Triple-A last year, and the fact that the Pirates have a competent left field platoon to hold things down for the time being, a June debut seems like it could align perfectly with the Pirates' financial interests and Meadows' developmental needs. He has had a hot spring training, slashing .368/.429/.737 with a 2:2 K:BB in 19 at-bats, but his struggles in 2017 carry a bit more weight. Regardless of his overall performance in 2018 and when he debuts in the big leagues, the top thing I'm monitoring is whether or not he can avoid the soft-tissue injuries that have seemingly plagued him throughout his pro career.