Oak's Corner: Goodbye 2017, Hello 2018 Values

Well, well, we have arrived at the final weekend of the season. This will be an abbreviated column, as there are no more free agents to unearth, no more players to buy low or sell high, and no more closers on which to speculate. Last week, I looked at players I thought might be drafted too high next year, so this week I'm taking a look at some of my initial targets for next year at their anticipated ADP. I'm sure some of these will change as I get into my deep studying in February and March, but these guys jumped out to me as players I think will come at a nice price next year.

Before I get there, I just want to say thanks to all the readers for stopping by and checking out the column all year. I have enjoyed writing it and have loved hearing your feedback and answering your questions. Hopefully over the course of the season at some point, I helped you pick up a player who helped you cash in a league, or, if not, at least you enjoyed the read! I also want to thank all the great people at RotoWire for giving me the forum for this column and hopefully it has added a tiny bit of goodness the great content all over the site.

The Week That Was

• I discussed Mookie Betts a couple of weeks ago when breaking down the first round, so I will not go too deep into him here, but I love the idea of grabbing him in the back half of the first round next year. In some industry mocks organized by Justin Mason of the Friends with Fantasy Benefits Podcast, Betts' ADP was 10th overall, putting him right in the range I was hoping he would land. His 2017 is considered a down year but Betts still managed to post 23 homers, 24 steals, 98 runs and 101 RBI.

  The .265 batting average is the glaring issue with his season after Betts hit .318 last season. I fully expect Betts' BABIP to climb from the current .270 as he has been over .300 in his first two seasons. His hard hit rate has actually jumped to a career high 35.9 percent while he maintained his elite strikeout rate at 11.1 percent. I also like the increased walk rate as it has risen almost four percent to 10.6 percent. His fly ball rate has also increased to 42.9 percent, and when you combine that with the hard hit trend, I see a return to 30-plus homers in 2018 for Betts. He'll still only be 25 next year, so I anticipate the steals will be around for a couple of years. I love getting Betts around pick 10; I think you'll get a top-five player without paying the price for it, and you pick earlier in the second round.

• About a month ago, I got excited about the prospect of a possible windfall of a discounted Josh Donaldson in 2018. Donaldson has had a large September with 10 homers (including an impressive two off Chris Sale earlier this week) and has now hit 24 home runs since the All Star break after only nine homers in 161 at bats before that. He missed most of Spring Training, plus a month of the season with his calf injury, and it took him a while to get going. Once he did, he has been the same guy we remember from the past two years who was the 11th player of the board this year in NFBC drafts. His price certainly isn't going to be as cheap as it could have been without this huge second half, but I think he will be available in the back half of the second round in 12-teamers and a middle of the second round pick in 15-teamers, as some of the big names from 2017 pass him and at that price, I will be all in on JD.

• As the Twins made their push for the second half wild card, Eddie Rosario, somewhat quietly, had an exceptional second half in the middle of their order. On the year, Rosario now has 27 homers, 79 runs, 78 RBI and nine steals to go with his .290 batting average. He has made great strides in both his strikeout and walk rates this season, dropping his K Rate 7.5 percent to 18.2 percent while increasing his walk rate by 2.5 percent to 6.1 percent. He has also upped his hard hit rate a bit to 31.5 percent and his fly balls to 37.4 percent, showing good support for the increased home runs. I like the direction of the trends in Rosario's profile, and with a many players hitting a lot of home runs this year, I think Rosario will fly nicely under the radar and be an excellent pick next year.

• After posting a .280 average and 15 homers in 78 Triple-A games, Nick Williams has been just as good in the majors with a .284 average and 11 homers in 80 games. He has also been a nice source of runs and RBI in his initial time in the bigs with 42 runs and 52 RBI. The batting average has been a constant plus for Williams as he has hit .286 across six minor league seasons. He has never been a huge power source in the minors, but he's still only 24 and could be growing into his power now with 26 homers this season across all levels. The one issue for Williams is the high strikeout rate, as he has struck out in 28.3 percent of his plate appearances in the majors after 29.4 percent in Triple-A this year. His high BABIP has kept his batting average up, but that's something that he has carried through most of his minor league seasons.

  His hard hit rate of 34.1 percent through his first half-season in MLB is promising, but if he's going to become a source of homers, he'll need to improve upon his 27 percent fly ball rate. Williams passes the eye test for me as I own him in NFBC, so I have watched a lot of his at-bats and I love his swing. After his success this season, it's a lock that he'll start the season with a starting spot in the Phillies outfield and very likely will hit in the middle of the lineup alongside fellow 2017 rookie Rhys Hoskins. I think Williams probably won't be drafted before the middle of drafts, and as my fourth or fifth outfielder, I'm definitely a buyer in 2018. The Phillies have to be loving the Cole Hamels trade now, as they not only acquired Williams, but also Jorge Alfaro and Jerad Eickhoff in the deal.

• Matt Chapman will not be expensive next season, and while he definitely has some holes in his offensive game, I think he'll be profitable for the price tag in 2018. Since his call-up, Chapman has played 80 games, and while the .229 average is ugly, he does have 13 homers, 37 runs and 36 RBI. His big issue is how often he swings and misses with a 29.1 percent strikeout rate so far in the majors, but he also has managed to walk in 9.7 percent of his plate appearances. His power looks very real, as he mashed 36 homers last year across Single and Double A before his 29 this season between Triple-A and the majors. His hard rate is solid at 36.9 percent and with a 49.7 percent fly ball rate, the homers should continue to come in bunches.

  His issue is clearly going to be the batting average, and that has been something he also struggled with in the minors. He will need to improve his strikeout rate to take any step up in average, but, even without that, I still think he will return a profit in 2018. Chapman's defense is already great and on the way to being elite, which is significant, as that will keep his bat in the lineups even through some slumps at the plate. From watching him a lot this year, I like his approach and think he has a chance to hit .250 if he can just bring down the K's a little bit. He will be a nice piece to start the year as a backup for your third baseman and corner infielder with a good chance of becoming a starter for you.

• I have liked and drafted Ender Inciarte ever since his arrival in Arizona in 2014. He doesn't get a ton of attention but he just passed the 200 hit mark earlier this week and is hitting .305 with 22 stolen bases. In an era of homers and strikeouts, a guy who helps you in average, steals and runs can provide a lot of value. While his strikeout rate has jumped a touch, it's still great at 13 percent and with that increase in K's, he has provided a bit of pop this year with 11 homers, which is nearly as many as he had in his first three seasons combined. His hard hit rate is never going to be good, that isn't his game, but with his contact rate and speed, I like his chance to hit for average and steal 20-plus bases again in 2018. Further, with Freddie Freeman hitting third and the Braves having found their two hole hitter in Ozzie Albies, the lineup behind him should continue to make him a great source of runs. His ADP this season was 200 in NFBC drafts, and while I expect that to rise, he'll likely still be picked around 150 and serves as a perfect fit for a team that has drafted heavy power early in the draft.
  

• With only 20 saves and playing on a West Coast team without a lot of wins, Brad Hand might slide under the radar in some drafts next season, but this dude is awesome. In his 78.1 innings for the Padres this year, Hand has a 2.18 ERA while striking out 103 batters. His walks, the biggest issue last year in his first season as a reliever, have dropped from 3.63 BB/9 in 2016 to 2.30 BB/9 this year. The full-time move to the bullpen has clearly agreed with Hand, as his ERA the past two seasons stands at 2.58 over 167.2 innings. His swinging strike rate has responded in a huge way to his relieving role, as it currently sits at 13.4 percent, after never crossing double digits before 2016.

  Hand also has increased the velocity on his fastball to 93.5 mph, but he has thrown it less, as he has used his slider 45 percent of the time this season after only 30.3 percent of the time in 2016. Hand is not only thriving in the bullpen but also improving, and he's an absolute lock to open 2018 as the Padres closer, assuming they don't trade him this offseason while his value is sky high. As long as he stays in San Diego, he will be a big target for me as, I love the direction his career is headed at 27 now that he has found a permanent home in the bullpen. I'm just hoping the low save total (Brandon Maurer spent the first half as the Padres closer) will keep his price down, at least a little bit.
  

Dodgers at Rockies and Brewers at Cardinals. There is only one playoff spot still up for grabs, and it is the second Wild Card in the National League, but even this spot is very close to being shut down. The Rockies hold a two-game lead over the Brewers, with the Cardinals being eliminated with a loss to the Cubs on Thursday night. In order to force a one-game playoff for the final spot, the Rockies would have to get swept as the Brewers win two of three, or the Brewers would have to sweep while the Rockies lose two of three. If you have Zach Davies and need some strikeouts or a win, root hard for a couple of Rockies losses on Friday and Saturday, as Davies might not even take the mound if the Rockies clinch before he's scheduled to start Sunday.

The one silver lining for the Brewers is the fact that the Rockies are welcoming the mighty 102-win Dodgers into Coors Field this weekend. Of course, the Dodgers have clinched the best record in the National League and have a two-game edge for the overall best record on the Indians, so they aren't likely to be pushing too hard to win, and have already announced that Yu Darvish will not make his start on Sunday. They will send Hyun-Jin Ryu and Clayton Kershaw to the hill on Friday and Saturday, but it is likely that both guys will be on shorter pitch counts than normal. The Rockies will definitely want to win on Friday night to take any drama out of the situation, because if they lose on Friday and face Kershaw on Saturday, it could get to be a nervous time pretty quickly. It hasn't been a good season for playoff races due to a number of dominant teams, but at least we have one still alive for the final weekend.

Thanks again everyone, enjoy the playoffs and the offseason!