Mound Musings: I’m Buying!

A few weeks ago, we looked at a few pitchers who have gotten off to poor starts in the 2017 season, and the following week we looked at a few who got off to good starts. Some of the most difficult decisions for a fantasy owner include knowing when to ride out that early season rough stretch and knowing when it's best to cut your losses and move on. And, there's a flipside to that coin. What about the big surprises in the early part of a season? There will always be guys with some upside lurking on the waiver wire, and you have to try to identify the real deals while ignoring the time bombs.

We'll evaluate some arms with the potential to help your team:

At this point in the season, fantasy owners are typically scrambling to try and improve their lineups. It's never easy, but this season has bred a whole new level of challenge with so many injuries to key rotation pitchers. Those injuries have created so many holes in fantasy pitching staffs – increased demand – and the resulting number of pickups has significantly depleted the number of available quality options – reduced supply.

Not surprisingly, the discussion here on Mound Musings (always something I really enjoy) has focused on pitchers appearing on the waiver wire, asking if this guy should be considered and should that guy be avoided. Given that slant, you will see more "fringe" pitchers mentioned in the Musings as we move forward. I'll talk about where they are now, what you might expect in the future, and I'll toss in some arising opportunity thoughts. Just keep in mind, league tendencies do vary widely, so some guys long gone in deeper, more aggressive leagues will be discussed, while guys still available in shallower leagues might not get a mention. Have a guy in mind? Just ask!

Below is a list of five starting pitchers the typical fantasy owner probably overlooked – understandably – on draft day and in many leagues are still available on the waiver wire. These aren't likely to be aces. Even in moderately deep leagues, those arms won't be out there (if they are I want to play in your league). So, let's take a look.

Here is my list of waiver wire possibilities, and what I expect going forward:

• Dinelson Lamet, 1.33 WHIP, 7.50 ERA (Padres) – So, how does a young pitcher with a 7.50 ERA after five MLB starts climb to the top of a fantasy watch list? I watched his first start, more out of mild curiosity than a perceived need to update my book on him, but that all changed. I keep a scouting notebook with two columns – one for positives and one for negatives – and, despite a rather pedestrian line, the positive side was full. That is rare. I watched the next start, and it was more of the same. I pursued him and acquired him in all but one league. Then the roof caved in. The next two starts he didn't have a good feel for his pitches, especially his breaking pitches, and he consistently fell behind early in counts. Too many pitches, too many walks and too many, "get me over" pitches that landed in the seats, yet there was still composure. In his most recent start, six innings, no walks and 12 strikeouts. In the three relatively successful outings he has accumulated 28 punchouts in just 14 innings. That's noteworthy. There's still work to do, primarily developing consistency and further refining his secondary pitches, but there is considerable hidden value here.

• Alex Meyer, 1.41 WHIP, 3.52 ERA (Angels) – Sometimes that useful waiver wire find isn't a young phenom making his MLB debut. In Meyer's case, the pitcher is a post-hype talent just starting to put everything together. That can benefit shrewd owners who have kept track despite underwhelming results in the minor leagues, and in occasional MLB opportunities. Meyer was highly touted when he came out of the University of Kentucky in the first round of the 2011 draft. There was no question regarding his electric stuff, but he almost immediately encountered problems finding a consistent release point. He's tall. Very tall (6'10") and mechanics often haunt pitchers of his stature. He moved from the Nationals, to the Twins and most recently to the Angels, as teams looked to see if they could help him find that elusive release point. It appears the Angels may be getting there. He still throws too many pitches, and walks too many. Sometimes. But sometimes is much better than all the time and he is clearly trending in the right direction. I have touted him since his college days, because I love his stuff. If he locks in, the sky is the ceiling.

• Brandon Finnegan, 1.50 WHIP, 2.70 ERA (Reds) – Finnegan is the first of two Reds' starters I will mention here. He's owned in only about one-third of leagues, but if you believe (at least partially) in his first 2017 start, he's a guy you should be considering seriously as he nears a return from the disabled list. In that first start, against an admittedly weak Phillies' lineup, he went seven shutout innings, allowing one hit and one walk while racking up nine strikeouts. The next two starts he lasted only a combined three innings (and issued eight walks). He clearly wasn't right and headed to the disabled list. He won't consistently repeat that first start, but he showed enough flashes last year to suggest he'll be capable of providing quality innings when healthy. I'm a little concerned that the injury was shoulder related, but it was a strained trapezius muscle and not structural, so there's reason to be optimistic going forward.

• Jacob Faria, 0.97 WHIP, 1.37 ERA (Rays) – Waiver wire shopping is usually an exercise in timing, and I'll admit the discount pricing on Faria likely has already come to an end. He came up with some fanfare, comes from an organization with a reputation for developing quality young pitchers and has won his first three starts in impressive fashion. Some are already throwing "ace" around as a term to describe him. Let's not get carried away. I like Faria. He has a decent arsenal, he throws strikes and he displays composure on the mound, albeit so far he hasn't run headlong into diversity to really test that composure. He doesn't have exceptional stuff, so I wouldn't expect his current level of success to last forever, but he can certainly provide fantasy owners with useful innings. If he's still available in a moderately deep league, by all means take a shot. Just be careful not to overpay and don't get unrealistic with your expectations.

• Homer Bailey, 0.00 WHIP, 0.00 ERA (Reds) – Here's a candidate who often requires you to move quickly if you want to reap any rewards. He hasn't pitched this season. In fact, he has only taken the mound eight times in over two years. Bailey is seemingly perpetually hurt and has only made 30-plus starts twice in his MLB career (2012 and 2013). However, his modus operandi has been to pitch well for short stretches when healthy, get nicked up and try to pitch through it with less-than-satisfactory results, followed by another extended trip to the disabled list. He's nearing his 2017 debut, probably this Saturday, and has reportedly looked sharp in his rehab appearances. After so long off, it's hard to predict what you'll get from Bailey, and even if it's good, it's presumptive to expect it to last for a long time. That said, he might be worth a shot to see if you can catch lightning in a bottle; just be ready to abandon ship if the stars fall out of alignment. The Reds' rotation is a train wreck, so getting Bailey and Finnegan back could be a huge boost.

• Buck Farmer, 1.36 WHIP, 6.62 ERA (Tigers) – Okay, the five pitchers outlined above all have some positive attributes I think could help your fantasy team. This guy might be the antithesis of that. I make mistakes. I know, I know, it's hard to believe! I didn't watch Farmer's first 2017 start. I saw him pitch last season and wasn't very excited. After his masterful 2017 debut, I decided I better have another look. His second start was pretty impressive, too. Illusion was apparently becoming reality. I added him in one of my leagues – not expecting dominance but hoping for consistently useful innings. His third start was awful. Vintage 2016. It was a two-start week; still time to erase that bad memory. The second start was worse. He allowed five hits while registering seven outs. Not too good. But, all five hits came with two strikes, andthree of those two-strike hits haven't landed yet. Seven more ugly runs allowed. Two starts, four and two-thirds innings, 14 hits, 13 runs, five home runs and a bus ticket to Toledo.
  

• The Royals' Matt Strahm just missed the above list of pick-up considerations. It's not because he lacks the talent, I'm just not sure he currently has the control he will need to get reasonably deep into games while navigating opposing batting orders multiple times. He's a better option in keeper formats.

• Gerrit Cole hasn't really been pitching up to his lofty standards for a while, but Pirates' pitchers tend to find it sooner rather than later when facing tough times. I watched a bit of his start on Monday and he continues to flash signs that better days are ahead. He could be a buy-low candidate, but you better hurry.

• Orioles pitchers already get downgraded a notch in my evaluation protocol, but after watching a little of Dylan Bundy and Chris Tillman toil this week, I'm considering a more drastic adjustment. It's hard to watch pitchers with clear talent laboring start after start. None of their arms are performing at all.

• I have never been a huge fan of Washington's Gio Gonzalez because he tends to be inconsistent throwing strikes. Higher pitch counts lead to shorter outings, as you get the feeling he never really knows where each pitch will end up. He's posting good numbers with his good stuff, but I'm always leery.

• On Wednesday I made it a point to check in on Texas' Tyson Ross. He's missed a lot of time, and I'm sure there's some rust, but his velocity is down a couple of ticks, and worse, his command wasn't very sharp. He may yet come back to what he once was, but I need to see a little more before pursuing him.

• In the category of "oh no," the Mets announced that Noah Syndergaard will not start throwing this month, moving his best-case return date to mid-August. On a related note; there have already been 13,000 game days lost to the disabled list in 2017 – on pace to shatter the record for days lost established last season.
  

Mark Melancon was supposed to be the endgame anchor the Giants have been missing for several years, but he hasn't always been the final word they were hoping for. Of note, Melancon has only enjoyed exceptional success while in the Pirates' bullpen. Conversely, the Dodgers' Kenley Jansen, the closer he was supposed to offset, just keeps getting better. A 50:0 K:BB? Amazing. I don't think Texas' Matt Bush is in any imminent danger of losing the closer's gig, but he has had a few shaky outings. If he does run into extended trouble, my guess is Keone Kela might be the next in line. The Angels got Cam Bedrosian back and put Bud Norris on the disabled list. That solves one question, but Huston Street will return soon, and his role is still undefined. Baltimore's Zach Britton isn't eligible to return until the first week in July, but he's now on a rehab assignment, and that timetable appears realistic. Brandon Kintzler has been doing a good job as the closer for Minnesota, and that's a good thing since former closer Glen Perkins suffered another setback and remains out indefinitely. Koda Glover is expected to miss another week so the Nats' bullpen is still in turmoil.