Regan's Rumblings: Finding Value in the Lesser-owned

I like to play in deeper formats where I can take advantage of what I like to think (in my head at least) is a pretty good knowledge of player valuation. This week I'll take a look at a handful of players that are available in less than 20% of Yahoo leagues. Some of these guys I actually like, while others are probably best left to the waiver wire…

Hitters

Trey Mancini (UT-BAL, 18%)
Mancini received the day off Monday in the midst of a 2-for-17 skid that took his slash down to .256/.293/.667. He's homered five times in 41 plate appearances, but the 13:2 K:BB is a bit concerning. Last year in well over 500 Triple-A plate appearances, Mancini walked in 9% of his plate appearances while striking out in 22.7% of them, both reasonable numbers. The right-handed hitter has exhibited reverse platoon splits in his limited playing time, but I wouldn't expect him to need to be platooned long term. His quickest path to regular at-bats probably comes in left field where he's competing with Hyun Soo Kim and Craig Gentry for playing time. I'm pretty optimistic on Mancini given the early power he's shown and the solid strikeout rates he put up in the minors, but he's going to have to scuffle for at-bats in the near term, especially when his bat isn't on fire.

C.J. Cron (1B-LAA, 17%)

I'm pretty down on Cron at this point, even electing to not extend his salary from $3 to $8 to obtain an extra year of control in our heavy-inflation 18-team staff mixed league. That's looking like a good decision at this point, as Cron is batting an anemic .208/.259/.226 with no home runs in 58 plate appearances. He's now sharing time with the .147-hitting Jefry Marte, and with Luis Valbuena (hamstring) closing in on a return, Cron could find himself buried even further on the bench. Long term? Given his pedigree as the 17th overall pick in the 2011 draft, I think there's still some hope, but with a 4.6% career BB%, the hope I have dwindles with each Cron at-bat.

Jorge Soler (OF-KC, 16%)

Soler is closing in on his 2017 debut after starting the season on the disabled list due to an oblique injury. Soler has been a disappointment the last couple years after debuting in 2014 with a .292/.330/.573 effort in 97 plate appearances with the Cubs. Soler however has been on the disabled list multiple times in each of the last three years (including 2017), so I have to wonder what kind of player he'd be if he could just stay healthy. Maybe we'll see that happen now.

Jett Bandy (C-MIL, 13%)

Bandy has been overshadowed a bit by Eric Thames' hot start, but don't overlook Bandy's .308/.357/.667 slash line that includes four home runs in 42 plate appearances. This coming from a guy that hit just .234/.281/.392 in 70 games with the Angles last season. Bandy is unfortunately stuck behind Manny Pina, who himself is batting .439/.465/.659 in 43 plate appearances. Given this looks to be a 50/50 split in terms of playing time, Bandy and Pina are best left to two-catcher and NL-only leagues, but if one of these guys gets hurt, the others' value jumps dramatically.

Aaron Hicks (OF-NYY, 12%)

When your 4th outfielder is batting .303/.455/.727, that's a nice "problem" to have. Clearly a 22.7% BB% and 9.1% K% aren't sustainable, but Hicks has walked more than 8% of the time and fanned less than 19% of the time in each of his last two season, so the plate discipline is pretty good. Perhaps the Yankees will start playing Jacoby Ellsbury at DH over the .217-hitting Matt Holliday with more frequency, opening up CF for Hicks.

Aaron Altherr (OF-PHI, 9%)

Altherr is killing the ball to the tune of .264/.417/.667 with two home runs in 36 PA's. He's even swiped a couple bases and with Howie Kendrick sidelined indefinitely with an oblique injury, Altherr has a chance to play every day and could even be Lou Gehrig to Kendrick's Wally Pipp given Kendrick isn't exactly a guy we have a lot of confidence in. Altherr's 2016 was pretty much a lost season due to his wrist injury and late-season slump, but he is a kid with talent despite his ninth round pedigree. Altherr once stole 37 bases in the minors, and while that won't be happening this year, he could swipe say 15 and hit 15 homers with a .280 BA.

Christian Arroyo (SS-SF, 8%)

After running through Triple-A to the tune of .446/.478/.692 in 69 PA's, the struggling Giants brought their #3 prospect to the big leagues. He's expected to play third base, with Eduardo Nunez shifted to the back hole that is left field. Arroyo isn't an elite prospect, but he is a career .300 hitter in the minors with an excellent 14.9% K%. He's less valuable in OBP leagues given his 5.7% BB% and he won't hit for a lot of power or steal too many bases, but if you need at-bats and a decent average, he could help.

Matt Davidson (3B-CHW, 8%)

In limited playing time, Davidson has been ridiculously good, batting .368/.375/.789 in 40 plate appearances with four homers and a whopping 14 RBI. Not so good is his 17:1 K:BB, and that's been the issue for Davidson throughout his career. The power is real, but with a 32.6% career K% (42.5% this year), Davidson isn't going to hit for much of an average. As for playing time, Cody Asche is just 2-for-35 on the year, so Davidson will likely continue to play until that inevitable slump. Feel free to use him, but at the first sign of a correction, feel free to cut bait.

Jurickson Profar (Everywhere-TEX, 7%)

Profar is batting just .135 and is without an extra-base hit, but I just can't quit the guy with the impressive prospect pedigree. On the plus side, Profar does have a solid 8:8 K:BB, but in parts of four seasons dating back to 2012, Profar has had essentially a full season of at-bats (612) resulting in an anemic .229/.309/.328 slash with 12 homers and four steals in 10 chances. At 24, he's relatively young and he'll see his .172 BABIP trend way up. Playing time? In the outfield, Nomar Mazara looks to be a foundational piece, but then you have "meh" guys like Carlos Gomez, Delino DeShields Jr., Shin-Soo Choo, and Ryan Rua. Profar is clearly a deep league option only at the moment, but with the improved plate discipline, I remain optimistic.

Tim Beckham (UT-TB, 4%)

Beckham was hitting just .156 on April 15, but a hot streak takes him up to .258/.279/.394 and he continues to function as the everyday shortstop. Beckham has a pair of homers and a steal in 66 PA's, but yeah that 23:2 K:BB isn't good. It's actually awful. A 30.9% career K% and 5.6% BB% indicates this isn't a new issue, but he's another guy I can't toss aside for one simple reason. He was drafted #1 overall in 2008, famously ahead of one Buster Posey. Beckham has been better lately, so I'm riding him in our 18-team staff league while I can.

Pitchers

Jacob Barnes (RP-MIL, 18%)

Neftali Feliz is still the closer despite a recent blow-up and a 5.87 ERA, but it looks as if Barnes is the preferred Plan B over Corey Knebel for the time being. Barnes has yet to allow a run in 11.1 innings so far this year with a 14:4 K:BB while averaging 96 mph with his fastball. Control has been an issue at times in his path through the minors, but if you're looking to speculate on saves, Barnes is a good option.

Dan Straily (SP-MIA, 16%)

Sure it was the Padres, but any time a fringy guy like Straily fans 14 in a single game, it's worth noting. Straily also was pulled after 5.1 hitless innings in his last start as five walks caused his pitch count to skyrocket, so he's been pretty decent overall with a 2.08 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 24:9 K:BB in 20.2 innings. A year removed from a 3.76 ERA in a less-than-friendly pitching environment, Straily should find Marlins Park much more to his liking. He's still not someone I trust rolling out there 100% of the time in 12-team mixed leagues, but at home and on the road against weaker offenses? Sure.

Eduardo Rodriguez (SP-BOS, 14%)

Another favorite of mine, Rodriguez flashed his upside in 14 second half starts last year, recording a 3.24 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 9.2 K/9. Rodriguez has a 3.12 ERA in 17.1 innings this year with an impressive 11.4 K/9. It's been pure ability on his part that he's kept his ERA that low given a 6.2 BB/9 and 1.56 HR/9. Clearly if those last two numbers stay elevated, the ERA will join them in the stratosphere, but E-Rod's BB/9 rates that last two were at least close to average at 2.7 and 3.4, so the control should improve. His best days are ahead of him, though the road may be a bit bumpy at times this year.

Tyler Skaggs (SP-LAA, 12%)

Skaggs has the prospect pedigree and the handedness (left, obviously) that I like, but after making his big league debut way back in 2012, Skaggs made just 35 big league starts in the next four years due to a variety of arm injuries, including Tommy John surgery. Skaggs appears healthy now, and after allowing five runs in each of his first two starts this year, Skaggs allowed two runs in 14 innings in his next two, so perhaps he's settling in. Skaggs' value isn't lifted by one of baseball's worst offenses, but a 3.60 ETA and 8.0 K/9 the rest of the way? Possible.

Derek Holland (SP-CHW, 11%)

Holland made just 35 starts from 2014-2016 due to a myriad of injuries, but he seems healthy these days, as evidenced by a 1.99 ERA. Holland has been a bit lucky given a 4.70 FIP, so regression is inevitable. On the plus side, his 7.5 K/9 is his best mark there since 2013, but I'm going to need more than a handful of innings before I buy in. Perhaps against lefty-heavy lineups at home I'm buying in DFS formats and streaming in roto leagues, but as an every-week option, I'd go elsewhere.

Jordan Montgomery (SP-NYY, 9%)

A 6-foot-6 southpaw, Montgomery certainly looks the part, though with a 91.5 mph average fastball, he's far from a flamethrower at this point in his young career. Montgomery has notched a pair of quality start in his three big league starts while posting a 3.78 ERA 8.6 K/9, and 3.2 BB/9. Montgomery has never been considered an elite pitching prospect, with the word "polished" being thrown around with a high degree of frequency. I can see using Montgomery in 12-team mixed leagues with the right matchups, but he's not a slam-dunk every week guy just yet.

Archie Bradley (SP/RP-ARI, 8%)

Bradley has very little value as a reliever right now, but with the new that Shelby Miller could be out for awhile with an arm injury, the team's No. 5 starter slot is open. The Diamondbacks have yet to close the door on Bradley's future being in the rotation, so he's a prime candidate given his 0.79 ERA in 11.1 innings so far this season. Bradley was formerly pegged as a future No. 1 level starter, but injuries have called that into question in recent years. Still, he's just 24, so if the Diamondbacks slot him into the rotation, I'm bullish enough to pick him up in all formats in which he's still available.

Jose Berrios (SP-MIN, 5%)

For some reason, Berrios is still pitching for Triple-A Rochester, but hey, this is the team that has no idea how to handle Byron Buxton, so I suppose we shouldn't be surprised. Berrios made his fourth start for Rochester on Tuesday, allowing one run over six innings and striking out 10. The fact that his ERA actually rose with that effort (from 1.42 to 1.44) says a lot about how he's pitched so far this year. I fully expect Berrios' next stat to come with the Twins, but it's not a given. I'd still grab him in most formats and stash him if you have the roster space.

Drew Storen (RP-CIN, 5%)

Ransel Iglesias is probably the preferred option in the Reds' bullpen at this point, but the situation remains a bit of an enigma, as Michael Lorenzen and Storen are also potential deeper league options. Storen has been great this year, allowing just one run in 9.1 innings with an 11:4 K:BB. Curiously, the former closer has seen his fastball velocity drop from an average of 94 mph two years ago to just 90.6 mph his year, but the results have actually improved. Whether that is sustainable is unknown, but the results and his experience could net him some saves at some point.

Matt Cain (SP-SF, 4%)

Cain has a 2.42 ERA and 4.81 FIP, so if you trust advanced metrics at all, you're not buying this. Put it this way, strikeouts and walks are an important predictor of pitcher success right? Cain had a 5.64 ERA last year, and this year his walks are up and strikeouts down. He's also allowing 1.2 HR/9 and his velocity is down for the third consecutive year. Lots of guys learn how to pitch with diminished velocity later in their careers, but let me know if you find someone who is optimistic about Cain's chances.