The Long Game: Who Stole the Steals Revisited

The short answer is yes. Yes it is.

So what conclusions can we draw from these numbers?

Steals are more unpopular, from an organizational perspective, than they've ever been

From 1996 through 2001, teams attempts roughly one steal per game on average. Starting in 2002, that number declined -- bottoming out at 0.75 attempts per game in 2005 before climbing again and looking like it was headed back to one-per-game territory in 2011 and 2012. Then in 2013, the bottom fell out and still hasn't recovered.

That drop, from 2012's 0.9 attempts per game to 2013's 0.76, was the biggest change during the entire period, and roughly 0.75 attempts seem to be the new normal. What changed? It's hard to say. The wild card expanded to two teams in 2012, so maybe teams reacted to the slightly better chance of making the postseason by becoming more conservative. If you've got a better explanation, please leave it in the comments, as I don't think 2013's big rule change turning the "fake a throw to third with runners on the corners" play into a balk had much of an impact.

League-wide success rates change slowly

In terms of success rates, the cycle seems to be about a decade. From 1996 through 2005, the league-wide success rate hovered just below 70 percent and averaged 69.1 percent. From 2006 through 2014, it took a big jump, averaging 72.8 percent over that stretch. Then last year, success rates dropped back to about the 70-percent mark. If the pattern continues, it could be 2023 or so before there's another big change in success rate.

I'm pretty sure this recent change is due to the focus on catcher defense and holding runners close with slide-steps, varied delivery times and the like. Hank Conger aside, there are few catchers seeing regular action that can't gun down base stealers at something at least close to that 30-percent break-even mark. Brian McCann (career caught-stealing rate of 26 percent) might be the closest thing left in the majors to a bat-first backstop, and even he has shown big improvement lately, racking up a 36.5-percent caught-stealing rate over 2014 and 2015.

With that in mind, the trends certainly seem to be pointing toward a dark time ahead for stolen bases. Knowing that, however, gives you time to prepare in keeper and dynasty leagues.

Here are some strategies worth pursuing:

Make stolen-base threats priority trade targets

Well, yeah, of course. Whether trading for the future or the present, focus on acquiring prospects or major league players who can run at least a little (and preferably a lot). Sure, maybe Billy Burns really is a fourth outfielder in the long run now that his BABIP has returned to human levels, but he'll still get some playing time (and the associated steals) with the mix-and-match A's. Is someone getting antsy waiting for Jose Peraza's promotion? Make them an offer! Ask for Chris Owings as a throw-in to balance out that blockbuster you're negotiating. Heck, if you're in rebuilding mode, Dee Gordon might look a lot better on your roster than on the bench of someone who expected to be a title contender this season.

By hoarding speedsters before anyone else fully grasps how scarce a commodity they're going to be over the next few seasons, not only are you protected against future PED suspensions or other untimely injuries, you should be able to flip some of them at a premium down the road once your competitors realize how things have changed.

Don't overlook smaller contributors

In an offensive environment where teams are only stealing a base every two games, the definition of "contributor" in that category looks a little different. Consider the following:

In this kind of environment, where there's a shortage of players who can single-handedly keep you competitive in the category, it's more important than ever to diversify your baserunning portfolio. Jose Iglesias isn't thought of as much of a base stealer and managed just 11 SBs in 2015, but finding a few guys with double digits like him could make a huge difference in the final standings. Other players who aren't really considered big-time speed merchants -- but might supply crucial steals for you at the margins -- are Brock Holt, Josh Harrison and whoever the Royals' fourth outfielder is at any given moment.

Push for a category change

This one's a little more hard core. Rather than exploiting the informational advantage related to steals being down and loading up on speedsters, you could try to convince your league to remove swipes from the equation entirely. In a traditional 5x5 setup, for instance, replacing BA and SB with SLG and OBP would make the hitting categories a more accurate reflection of MLB offense in the 21st century (as well as balancing the counting stat vs ratio stat categories between hitting and pitching). It may not be as ruthless as quietly stockpiling proven base-stealers, but it might be better for your league overall in the long haul.